For Wednesday, July 9, I’m on four MLB home run props: Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto (against the Orioles), Ketel Marte (against the Padres), and Nick Kurtz (against the Braves).
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets for Wednesday.
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Editor’s Note: A home run parlay is not the author’s formal recommendation. These home run picks have value as straight bets.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Wednesday, July 9
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:05 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#1″ firstfullname=”New York Mets” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nym.png” text=”Francisco Lindor Home Run (+325)”][/teammatchup] |
| 7:05 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#1″ firstfullname=”New York Mets” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nym.png” text=”Juan Soto Home Run (+255)”][/teammatchup] |
| 9:40 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” text=”Ketel Marte Home Run (+470)”][/teammatchup] |
| 10:05 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Athletics” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oak.png” text=”Nick Kurtz Home Run (+350)”][/teammatchup] |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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MLB Home Run Picks for July 9
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Francisco Lindor (+325); Juan Soto (+255)” subtext=”at Orioles (SP: RHP Tomoyuki Sugano)” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nym.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
There are some weather concerns for Mets vs Orioles, but there is a decent chance they play, and if they do, the value is great for home runs as I have several hitters for the Mets as big positive value plays.
Tomoyuki Sugano has a low K rate and has been incredibly susceptible to power this season, giving up 1.40 HR/9 to righties and 2.23 HR/9 to lefties. The fly-ball rate and hard-contact rates are high, and the weather in Baltimore should be great for hitting, with high humidity and temps in the mid 80s.
If this game plays, the value is big enough that I’m willing to take the risk, and if it doesn’t, then the bet will void anyways.
Francisco Lindor (18 home runs) has been smashing the ball this season and this ballpark is a massive upgrade for lefty power. I have his true odds around +250, making this a great bet.
Juan Soto has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the last month. I have the true odds here around +210.
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[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Ketel Marte (+470)” subtext=”at Padres (SP: RHP Dylan Cease)” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Ketel Marte gets a tough overall matchup today, but for Padres starter Dylan Cease is actually a plus matchup for left-handed power hitters.
Cease is allowing a 1.32 HR/9 this season to lefties, which is consistent with his career numbers (1.24).
Marte has been one of the best HR hitters in the league this season, with 19 HRs in 64 games and the underlying power numbers are the best of his career.
I have the true odds on Marte around +400.
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Nick Kurtz (+350)” subtext=”vs. Braves (SP: RHP Bryce Elder)” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oak.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Braves starter Bryce Elder’s underlying numbers aren’t terrible, but he has been a gas can for power to both sides of the plate this season, allowing 1.69 HR/9 to lefties and a 2.20 HR/9 to righties.
He’s giving up large amounts of hard contact, and this is one of the best ballparks in the league for hitters, where temps should be over 90 degrees tonight.
Nick Kurtz has been one of the hottest hitters in the league over the last month, and the price just isn’t where it should be for the matchup.
I have the true odds here around +275.
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