Independence Day is here!
The 4th of July is always an exciting time filled with grilling, celebrating with family and friends … and baseball! All 30 teams are in action today and the games get started as early as 11:05 a.m. ET. There is plenty of day baseball to dive into and fun, family activities to get to, so let’s not waste any more time.
Today’s MLB best bets are below.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” secondfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png”][/teammatchup] | 1:05 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Texas Rangers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” secondfullname=”San Diego Padres” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png”][/teammatchup] | 6:40 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Detroit Tigers” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png”][/teammatchup] | 7:10 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” secondfullname=”Atlanta Braves” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png”][/teammatchup] | 7:15 p.m. | |
|
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Derek Carty’s Reds vs Phillies Pick: Abbott Showing Value”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Andrew Abbott Under 17.5 Outs (+130)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” awayname=”Cincinnati Reds” awayslug=”cincinnati-reds” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” homename=”Philadelphia Phillies” homeslug=”philadelphia-phillies” date=”Friday, July 4″ time=”1:05 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]
By Derek Carty
THE BAT X is forecasting 15.45 pitching outs for Andrew Abbott compared to 17.76 pitching outs implied by the oddsmakers, so I believe there is value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 65% of the time, resulting in a 50% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $50.05.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Andrew Abbott Under 17.5 Outs (+130)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” secondfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Texas Rangers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” secondfullname=”San Diego Padres” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Detroit Tigers” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” secondfullname=”Atlanta Braves” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bet Labs’ Rangers vs Padres Best Bet: System Suggests Under Play”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Under 8.5 (+100)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” awayname=”Texas Rangers” awayslug=”texas-rangers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png” homename=”San Diego Padres” homeslug=”san-diego-padres” date=”Friday, July 4″ time=”6:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
By Bet Labs
This MLB betting system — titled “Steam Unders with Low O/U Support” — is built on the premise that sharp money moving totals downward, paired with weak public support on the under, creates an exploitable edge in the betting market.
The strategy focuses on regular-season games from 2019 to 2025 in which the closing total lands between 8-10 — sweet spots for scoring volatility. It also isolates games in which the over/under has dropped significantly from open to close, signaling smart money on the under, yet public sentiment heavily favors the over, with only a small share of bets backing the under.
This mismatch between money and ticket count indicates potential value, especially when the difference between those two figures is meaningful, but not extreme. To reduce noise, the system excludes games played in extreme heat or cold, only including those where temperatures range from mild to warm. It also requires both teams to have a recent record of games that hover around the total, suggesting no extreme streaks skewing expectations. These filters ensure that neither team is riding an unsustainable over or under trend.
The result is a consistent edge, backed by a large sample size and strong return on investment. Overall, this system has generated a 15% ROI with a 505-341-42 (60%) record. This season, the system is 87-53-4 (62%) with a 19% ROI.
[betlabsembed systemid=”1486199″ systemname=”Evan Abrams / Bet Labs – Steam Unders with Low OU Support” leaguename=”mlb” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20game%20was%20played%20during%20the%202025%20or%202024%20or%202023%20or%202022%20or%202021%20or%202020%20or%202019%20season%22%2C%22the%20visitor%20team’s%203%20Games%20OU%20Margin%20is%20between%20-2.3%20and%205.25%22%2C%22the%20home%20team’s%203%20Games%20OU%20Margin%20is%20between%20-3.33%20and%203.19%22%2C%22the%20temperature%20is%20between%201%20and%2087%20degrees%22%2C%22the%20o%2Fu%20change%20from%20open%20to%20close%20is%20between%20-1.5%20and%200%22%2C%22the%20closing%20total%20is%20between%208%20and%2010%22%2C%22the%20difference%20between%20money%20%25%20and%20ticket%20%25%20is%20between%201%20and%2087%22%2C%22the%20over%2Funder%20%25%20is%20between%201%25%20and%2029%25%22%2C%22betting%20on%20the%20Under%22%2C%22the%20game%20is%20played%20during%20the%20Regular%20season%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$13,544″ record=”505-341-42″ winpct=”60%”][/betlabsembed]
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100)
[quickslipbasic bookname=”DraftKings” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/128508_Primary1.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/07/Screenshot-2025-07-04-at-6.30.33%E2%80%AFAM.png” buttontext=”Parlay These Picks Instantly!” buttonlink=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v2/deeplink?deeplinkId[0]=ML1665504557&deeplinkId[1]=ML1665065723&deeplinkId[2]=ML1664860998&deeplinkId[3]=ML1665243591&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” secondfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Texas Rangers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” secondfullname=”San Diego Padres” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Detroit Tigers” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” secondfullname=”Atlanta Braves” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Chris Prince’s Tigers vs Guardians Best Bet: Is Tigers’ Lineup Vulnerable?”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Slade Cecconi Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” awayname=”Detroit Tigers” awayslug=”detroit-tigers” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” homename=”Cleveland Guardians” homeslug=”cleveland-guardians” date=”Friday, July 4″ time=”7:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Chris Prince
There is sneaky good strikeout upside for Slade Cecconi against the Tigers, and we’re getting a great price on over 4.5 strikeouts at DraftKings.
Cecconi isn’t a massive strikeout pitcher, but has a respectable 23.6% strikeout rate this season. There are also plenty of strikeouts to be had against the Tigers’ lineup, which has struck out at the fifth-highest rate in baseball against right-handed pitching this season (23%). Seven of the nine starters in the projected lineup have at least a 21% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, and RotoGrinders has Cecconi projected for 5.65 strikeouts.
Pick: Slade Cecconi Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” secondfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Texas Rangers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” secondfullname=”San Diego Padres” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Detroit Tigers” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” secondfullname=”Atlanta Braves” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bet Labs’ Orioles vs Braves Best Bet: System Finds Over/Under Value”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Under 9 (-110)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” awayname=”Baltimore Orioles” awayslug=”baltimore-orioles” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” homename=”Atlanta Braves” homeslug=”atlanta-braves” date=”Friday, July 4″ time=”7:15 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”Caesars Sportsbook” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/256064_caesars_800x200.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars-sportsbook”][/gameheader]
By Bet Labs
This system capitalizes on an overlooked weather edge when betting MLB totals. It focuses on regular-season games where elevated humidity — ranging from 45 to 95 — intersects with moderate temperatures and neutral wind patterns.
Despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, this system looks for games in which bettors are fading these conditions, which actually correlate with suppressed scoring in certain environments. These indicators combine to identify under-the-radar under spots where public narratives misalign with actual scoring trends.
This season, this system has cashed 60% of its picks (59-39-1) and generated a 15% ROI. Lifetime, this system has turned in a 20% ROI and is 269-164-13 (62%).
[betlabsembed systemid=”1479159″ systemname=”Evan Abrams / Bet Labs – Public Fades Humidity = Unders” leaguename=”mlb” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20average%20humidity%20is%20between%2045%25%20and%2095%25%22%2C%22the%20home%20team’s%205%20Game%20over%20percentage%20is%20between%200%25%20and%2040%25%22%2C%22the%20temperature%20is%20between%2054%20and%2097%20degrees%22%2C%22the%20wind%20direction%20is%20From%20Right%20or%20Left%20To%20Right%20or%20From%20Left%20or%20Right%20To%20Left%20or%20In%20or%20None%22%2C%22the%20o%2Fu%20change%20from%20open%20to%20close%20is%20between%20-1%20and%200%22%2C%22the%20over%2Funder%20%25%20is%20between%206%25%20and%2029%25%22%2C%22the%20game%20was%20played%20during%20the%202025%20or%202024%20or%202023%20or%202022%20or%202021%20or%202020%20season%22%2C%22betting%20on%20the%20Under%22%2C%22the%20game%20is%20played%20during%20the%20Regular%20season%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$8,703″ record=”269-164-13″ winpct=”62%”][/betlabsembed]
Pick: Under 9 (-110)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” secondfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Texas Rangers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” secondfullname=”San Diego Padres” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Detroit Tigers” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” secondfullname=”Atlanta Braves” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png”][/teammatchup] |
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