The Philadelphia Phillies (46-30) host the New York Mets (45-31) on Saturday, June 21, 2025. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Phillies enter Saturday on a roll, winning nine of their last 11 games to surge into first place in the NL East. The Mets and Phillies totaled 12 runs in the series opener — should we expect more runs in today’s middle game with Griffin Canning and Mick Abel on the hill?
Find my Mets vs Phillies predictions and pick for Saturday below.
Mets vs Phillies Predictions, Odds, Lines
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Mets vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Griffin Canning (NYM) | Stat | RHP Mick Abel (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | W-L | 2-0 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 3.80/4.47 | ERA /xERA | 2.21/4.75 |
| 4.20/4.00 | FIP / xFIP | 4.06/3.72 |
| 1.40 | WHIP | 1.03 |
| 10.2 | K-BB% | 16 |
| 51.3 | GB% | 37.3 |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 110 |
| 98 | Location+ | 100 |
Mets vs Phillies Predictions, Betting Analysis
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The Mets could not be in worse shape coming into this matchup. Following last night’s bullpen implosion, they have now lost seven straight games. However, they are bound to break out of their slump since the lineup has posted a wRC+ of 116 over the past two weeks.
Their BABIP is low, and their ground-ball rate is up over that span, but tonight they face a starter in Mick Abel who has shown he can pound the zone, but doesn’t miss many bats, and much of his contact has been in the air.
Abel has been great at wiggling out of trouble as he stranded an incredible 95% of runners over his first four career starts, but his xERA of 4.64 and FIP of 4.06 say that is bound to catch up to him.
Hitting conditions are excellent at Citizen Bank Park tonight, with the temperature rising and the wind blowing out to the short porch in right field.
I would not be surprised to see the Mets get to Abel early here, but my concern is when he departs.
The Phillies’ high-leverage relievers will be ready to go in this one, and they should put out any fire that Abel starts.
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On the flip side of this matchup, the Mets are in desperate need of a good outing from Griffin Canning. After looking like the best free-agent signing of the offseason through the first two months of the season, Canning has hit a wall in June, posting a 5.74 ERA over his past three starts.
Like their counterparts, the Phillies are in a good spot offensively. They have been above average against righties this season and have continued to produce without Bryce Harper in the middle of the order.
However, the Mets’ bullpen is desperate to snap its streak, and I expect Mendoza to be aggressive with his bullpen as these two teams are neck and neck atop of the NL East.
The backend of the Mets’ bullpen is rested and ready to be deployed.
We should see New York pull out every card to contain this Philadelphia lineup late in the game.
Mets vs Phillies Best Bet
Last night, hitting conditions were similar, and the game was tight until the Phillies put up six runs in the bottom of the seventh inning.
Tonight, we likely won’t see those crooked numbers late in the game, which makes the total a bit inflated.
While these teams may get off to hot starts, expect the bats to cool off and keep the final score under the total.
Pick: Under 10.5 (-111); Bet to Under 9.5
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Moneyline
I lean toward the Mets snapping their cold streak tonight as slight underdogs.
Run Line (Spread)
I see no value in the run line.
Over/Under
Take the under.
Mets vs Phillies Betting Trends
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