The Arizona Diamondbacks (35-34) host the San Diego Padres (38-30) on Saturday, June 14, 2025. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Diamondbacks enter Saturday on a four-game winning streak and go for the series win over their NL West rival behind ace Zac Gallen.
Continue below to find my Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction, as well as Saturday probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
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- Padres vs Diamondbacks picks: Under 9.5 (-120) | Play to Under 9
My Padres vs Diamondbacks best bet is the game total under 9.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Odds, Lines
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Padres vs Diamondbacks Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Ryan Bergert (SDP) | Stat | RHP Zac Gallen (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 4-8 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 1.26/3.89 | ERA /xERA | 5.15/4.20 |
| 4.33/5.55 | FIP / xFIP | 4.89/4.30 |
| 0.98 | WHIP | 1.33 |
| 3.6 | K-BB% | 11.3 |
| 32.5 | GB% | 42.5 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 94 | Location+ | 104 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Preview, Prediction
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While the San Diego Padres enter this game just two games behind the Dodgers in the NL West, it’s safe to say they have yet to meet expectations, particularly at the plate.
It’s hard to imagine a lineup that features Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill has the lowest hard-hit rate in all of baseball.
However, the Padres have proven to be a quantity-over-quality team at the dish, as they rarely strike out. The only issue is that their contact is not hard, and they also hold the second-highest ground-ball rate.
That is not a recipe for success, especially when they have to contend with Zac Gallen tonight.
Gallen has yet to look his best as he enters with a 5.15 ERA, but a closer look shows he’s due for success as his xERA of 4.20 and xFIP of 4.31 paint a much more accurate picture of how he’s pitched this season.
We should see that positive regression come to fruition tonight, as with his strikeout numbers down, we’ve seen him generate more groundballs. Behind Gallen, the Diamondbacks‘ bullpen has been tough to trust, but they have a few of their top arms fresh, who should further contain the scuffling Padres’ bats.
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As for the Diamondbacks, their pitching has been holding them back while their lineup has been raking against right-handed pitching this season. Arizona leads the majors in wRC+ and ISO against righties, and tonight it gets to face a rookie in Ryan Bergert.
Tonight will be Bergert’s third career start, and to this point, you have to like what he’s brought to the big leagues. He’s excelled at generating soft contact, but he does not miss many bats, and over two-thirds of the contact against him has been in the air.
Those are troubling trends to take against a lineup like Arizona’s. There’s a chance he gets knocked around here, but he’s yet to go further than 5.1, so I figure his hook may be quick if he gets into trouble the second time through the order.
That is primarily because many of the Padres’ top arms are fresh for this matchup. San Diego’s bullpen has been excellent; they should be able to put out the fire if needed.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Betting Analysis
This total is fairly high, and it’s clear where the runs could come from in this matchup as the Diamondbacks lineup is in a great spot against a rookie right-hander. However, Bergert and the arms behind him are not being given enough credit.
On the other side, the Padres’ lineup has yet to prove itself, and their contact metrics are just what a struggling Zac Gallen needs to get back on track tonight.
Take the under here.
Pick: Under 9.5
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Moneyline
I will not be betting on either side of the Moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I’m also staying away from Run Line bets.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I see value in Under 9.5 for today’s game.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends
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