Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato, Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC Atlanta, Saturday June 14

Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato Odds, Prediction

Check out my Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato predictions, picks and odds for UFC Atlanta on Saturday, June 14.

Paul Craig and Rodolfo Bellato were originally booked to fight last month, but a fight day withdrawal from Bellato pushed the fight back. Nothing about the circumstances of the withdrawal really changes my handicap for the fight, though the line has moved a bit towards Craig this time around. Still, the fun long shot sprinkle I had last time is well within the range to be worth trying again.

Here’s my Craig vs. Bellato prediction.

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Tale of the Tape

At his peak, Paul Craig was probably a fight away from a UFC title shot. The Scottish grappling ace won four straight fights by stoppage, beating two former or future champions in Jamahal Hill and Mauricio Rua, and was ranked inside the top five.

Then his opponents realized they didn’t have to engage him on the ground. Craig is one of the best submission artists in the UF, but struggles to land takedowns. His 20% success rate is extremely low, and most of his fights ended up on the ground due to Paul pulling guard.

Eventually, the rest of the division figured out that top position on Craig wasn’t worth the risk, and to force him to fight on his feet. That’s left Craig with two options: Either wing wild shots and hope one connects, or continue to shoot bad double legs and turn them into guard pulls.

The former strategy at least leads to exciting fights, usually ending with Craig unconscious. The latter has led to some stinkers.

Craig has now been used as a stepping stone for ascending names like Caio Borralho, Brendan Allen, and most recently Bo Nickal — though the lackluster kickboxing match they put on certainly didn’t ingratiate Bo to any new fans.

Rodolfo Bellato seems fairly incapable of a boring kickboxing match. The BJJ brown belt has some high-level grappling accomplishments, but most of his professional MMA career has been decided by strikes.

Both his pro losses came against current UFC fighter Vitor Petrino, who knocked out Bellato in a Brazilian regional fight and on the Contender Series. Since that DWCS loss, Bellato has two knockout wins and a draw in UFC-affiliated action, including his second stint on the Contender Series.

As his numbers indicate, Bellato is all gas no brakes on the feet. He both lands and absorbs more than six significant strikes per minute, both well over the divisional average. He’s shown a remarkable ability to recover from damage, coming back from near knockouts against Ihor Poteria and Jimmy Crute. He won the former fight with a knockout of his own while winning the second and third rounds against Crute.

On the one hand, that durability is commendable. On the other, taking that much damage isn’t a great long-term plan, and the refs in both fights would’ve been justified in halting the action.

On the ground, his jiu-jitsu skill is evident, but also not especially blended into MMA grappling. Against Crute, he made some risky decisions to isolate his arms in an attempt to find sweeps or escapes, which led to taking a ton of damage.

That’s extremely risky against Craig, who not only has elite grappling but has adapted it well to MMA. Of course, that might not matter, as it’s hard to see Craig landing a takedown.

Bellato should be able to cover his heavy price tag against Craig with the right game plan here, though he does tend to initiate grappling exchanges and that’s a hard habit to break.

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Craig vs. Bellato Prediction

Last time this fight was booked, the price on Paul Craig to win by KO/TKO was an insane +2500.

We aren’t getting quite that much value this time around, with the best line +1400 at both FanDuel and DraftKings. That’s still enough for me, as there’s a chance Craig either lands one of his wild shots on the feet, or uses his grappling for ground and point instead of submission attempts.

As always with long shot bets like this it’s just a slight sprinkle from me, since it’s obvious not the likeliest outcome.

Billy’s Pick: Paul Craig via TKO/KO +1400 (FanDuel/DraftKings)

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