The Boston Red Sox host the Tampa Bay Rays on June 10, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NESN and MLB.TV.
The Red Sox enter as -115 favorites on the moneyline with the over/under sitting at 9.
Read our Rays vs Red Sox prediction and MLB pick below.
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- Rays vs Red Sox Pick: Over 9.5 (+100, BetMGM)
My Red Sox vs. Rays best bet is on both teams to go over the total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
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Rays vs Red Sox Odds, Line, Spread
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Rays vs Red Sox Projected Pitchers
| RHP Ryan Pepiot (TBR) | Stat | RHP Lucas Giolito (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 3.20 / 4.24 | ERA / xERA | 6.42 / 5.80 |
| 4.35 / 4.02 | FIP / xFIP | 4.76 / 4.28 |
| 1.13 | WHIP | 1.63 |
| 13.9% | K-BB% | 10.7% |
| 37.7% | GB% | 39.6% |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 88 |
| 104 | Location+ | 104 |
Rays vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
These are two starting pitchers that I’m very low on.
Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito is a mess (6.42 ERA, 5.80 xERA, 88 Stuff+) and is consistently prone to complete blow-ups — he allowed eight runs across seven hits in his last outing against the Angels.
Meanwhile, Rays starter Ryan Pepiot is overperforming (3.20 ERA, 4.24 xERA) and due for significant regression. He’s lost some swing-and-miss stuff (21% strikeout rate), so he’s run into a homer-problem as a fly-ball-heavy pitcher (1.42 HR/9, 37% GB rate).
He allowed six earned runs on nine hits across six innings in his last start against Boston, a 7-4 loss on April 15. The Red Sox bats could get to him again on Tuesday.
Of arguably greater importance, both these bullpens are gassed.
The Red Sox have deployed almost all their relievers multiple times in the past four days, including:
| Pitcher | 9-June | 8-June | 7-June |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | 15 | 3 | 11 |
| Greg Weissert | 10 | 12 | |
| Brennan Bernardino | 16 | 21 | |
| Zack Kelly | 23 | 15 | 24 |
And the Rays are in a similar situation:
| Pitcher | 9-June | 8-June | 7-June |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Fairbanks | 30 | 13 | |
| Garrett Cleavinger | 14 | 12 | |
| Manuel Rodriguez | 21 | 17 | |
| Kevin Kelly | 7 | ||
| Mason Montgomery | 13 | 11 | |
| Eric Orze | 16 | 5 | 26 |
Fenway is always a hitter-friendly park, and the weather should be reasonably hitter-friendly. The Rays’ offense is red-hot (121 wRC+ over the past two weeks), and the Red Sox aren’t far behind (112 wRC+).
Behind two struggling starting pitchers, two exhausted bullpens, and two white-hot lineups in a great ballpark, I expect plenty of runs in Boston on Tuesday.
Our guy Sean Zerillo projects 9.9 runs for this matchup.
Pick: Over 9.5 (+100 · BetMGM)
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Rays vs Red Sox Betting Trends to Watch
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