The Phoenix Mercury (8-4) and Connecticut Sun (2-9) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. The game will be broadcast live on NBCS-BOS.
Let’s get into my Mercury vs. Sun prediction and WNBA picks.
The Mercury are favored by -14.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 157 (-110o / -110u). The Mercury are a -1450 favorite to win outright, while the Sun are +790 to pull off the upset.
Mercury vs. Sun Odds, Pick
[gamematchup league=”wnba” awaylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/207903_Mercury.png” awayname=”Mercury” awayslug=”-” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/wnba/100/con.png” homename=”Sun” homeslug=”-” date=”Wednesday, June 18, 2025″ time=”7:00 p.m. EDT” network=”NBCS-BOS” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Over/Under” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”-14.5″ col1awayline=”-110″ col1hometext=”+14.5″ col1homeline= “-110″ col2awaytext=”157″ col2hometext=”157″ col2awayline=”-110o / -110u” col2homeline=”-110o / -110u” col3awaytext=”-1450″ col3hometext=”+790″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”BetMGM” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/902516_MGM2.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gamematchup]
- Mercury vs. Sun Spread: Mercury -14.5 (-110), Sun +14.5 (-110)
- Mercury vs. Sun Over/Under: 157 (-110o / -110u)
- Mercury vs. Sun Moneyline: Mercury -1450, Sun +790
- Mercury vs. Sun Best Bet: Bet This Side Against the Spread
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Mercury vs. Sun Preview” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/207903_Mercury.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/wnba/100/con.png” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
The Phoenix Mercury, winners of two straight and three of four, hit the road to face a Sun team playing a back-to-back and coming off a contentious loss to the Fever.
Connecticut has lost three straight games, though there may be value on the Sun tonight. Tina Charles (20 points) and Olivia Nelson-Ododa (14 points) led the Sun in scoring Tuesday and could — along with Marina Mabrey (16.5 points per game on average) play a big role tonight.
On the other side, Phoenix is led by Satou Sabally, who averages 20.6 points and 7.9 rebounds per game, and Alyssa Thomas, who averages 14.4 points per game. Thomas has scored 10 or more points in all seven games this season and Sabally has dropped 20 or more in three straight.
All that being said, let’s get to tonight’s Mercury vs. Sun best bet.
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Mercury vs. Sun Prediction” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]
This strategy plays on the perception that “bad” teams should be avoided when they’re coming off a loss.
When such teams are large underdogs, it’s often because they were recently blown out or are on a cold streak. However, when the previous loss was by a modest margin, this system finds value in the market’s overreaction. The public tends to pile onto fading weak teams coming off a loss, which leads to artificially widened spreads — ideal for covering. These teams often fight harder than expected in the follow-up game and keep the margin within the number.
This season, this system is 7-5 (58%) and has generated an 11% ROI. Lifetime, this system is 180-124-4 (59%) and has a 14% ROI.
Best Bet: Sun +14.5
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/06/Screenshot-2025-06-18-at-6.48.25%E2%80%AFAM.png” buttontext=”Tail This Pick Instantly!” buttonlink=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v2/deeplink?deeplinkId[0]=ML1634381045&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
_InlineAdBlock
[procard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/736824_ActionPRO_promo_1500x844.jpg” cta=”Premium picks, tools & analysis” firstupsell=”Track & follow smart money” secondupsell=”Biggest player prop edges” thirdupsell=”Real-time expert pick alerts” buttontext=”SAVE 66% NOW!” buttonurl=”/pricing”][/procard]