The Connecticut Sun (2-8) and Indiana Fever (5-5) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Ind. The game will be broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Fever are favored by -16 on the spread, with the over/under set at 165 (-109o / -109u). The Fever are a -1600 favorite to win outright, while the Sun are +900 to pull off the upset.
Let’s get into my Sun vs. Fever prediction and WNBA picks.
Sun vs. Fever Odds, Pick
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- Sun vs. Fever Spread: Fever -16 (-111 ), Sun +16 (-109)
- Sun vs. Fever Over/Under: 165 (-109o / -109u)
- Sun vs. Fever Moneyline: Sun +900, Fever -1600
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Caitlin Clark is back.
After missing time with a strained quadriceps muscle, the Fever star returned in a big way in Indiana’s upset win over the Liberty on Saturday. Clark shot 7-of-14 from 3 and scored 32 points to go along with nine assists and eight rebounds.
The Fever, as a whole, have also been playing well as they’ve won three of their past four. However, prior to that hot streak there was a two-point home loss to the Connecticut Sun, whom Indiana will host again tonight.
Since that contest, the Sun have struggled. Connecticut has lost three of its past four, and only one of those games was withing single digits.
Still, this is a big spread for a matchup between two teams that played down to the wire just a few weeks ago. Yes, Clark missed that game, but how many points is she worth in this contest?
Let’s dive into the latest WNBA odds and make a Sun vs. Fever best bet.
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This system plays on the perception that “bad” teams coming off a loss should be avoided. When such teams are large underdogs, it’s often because they were recently blown out or are on a cold streak.
However, when the previous loss was by a modest margin, this system finds value in the market’s overreaction. The public tends to pile on to fading weak teams after a loss, leading to artificially widened spreads — ideal for covering. These teams often fight harder than expected in the follow-up game and keep the margin within the number.
Sometimes it’s scary to back these big ‘dogs, but hopefully the math can help convince you. Overall, this system is 179-123-4 (59%) and has generated a 15% ROI. This season specifically, the system is 7-5 (58%) and has produced an 11% ROI.
Best Bet: Sun +16
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