The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Miami Marlins on Wednesday, June 11, 2025. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet PIT and FanDuel Sports Florida.
Find my Marlins vs Pirates prediction and pick on the moneyline for Wednesday below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
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- Marlins vs Pirates pick: Pirates Moneyline (-146 | Play to -160)
My Marlins vs Pirates best bet is the Pirates moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
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Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Odds, Lines
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Marlins vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Cal Quantrill (MIA) | Stat | LHP Bailey Falter (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-6 | W-L | 4-3 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 5.63 / 5.23 | ERA /xERA | 3.49 / 3.54 |
| 4.32 / 4.50 | FIP / xFIP | 4.03 / 4.69 |
| 1.49 | WHIP | 1.12 |
| 9.9% | K-BB% | 6.9% |
| 33.9% | GB% | 39.9% |
| 87 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 103 | Location+ | 98 |
Marlins vs Pirates Preview, Predictions
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After a promising start to his career, Cal Quantrill has entered a downward spiral that began in 2023. Since then, the right-hander is 15-24 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.
In 2025, Quantrill is on track for the worst season of his career. Through 12 starts, the former No. 8 overall draft pick is 3-6 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.
Quantrill’s underlying metrics suggest more of the same moving forward. This season, he ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity and barrel rate.
Following Quantrill is a fade-worthy bullpen. Entering this matchup, Miami’s relief staff ranks in the bottom 10 in ERA, fielding independent pitching (FIP), expected FIP (xFIP) and wins above replacement (WAR).
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The clear pitching advantage belongs to Pittsburgh.
Starting with the bullpen, the Pirates outrank the Marlins in each of those four statistical categories.
Bailey Falter is also the superior starting pitcher in this matchup. While Falter experienced turbulence through his first five big league seasons, he is currently putting together the best year of his career.
Through 13 starts, the left-hander is 4-3 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. His analytics are also strong.
Falter owns a 3.54 xERA and ranks in the 63rd percentile in barrel rate. In addition to those numbers, he also outranks Quantrill in xBA and average exit velocity.
Marlins vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
There is no question about the pitching disparity between these two teams, which is why Pittsburgh is favored on its home field.
The only real debate lies in the offensive matchup.
While Miami holds a slight edge at the plate, it is far narrower than the gap in pitching. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in runs per game, on-base percentage (OBP), slugging percentage and OPS.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline (-146 | Play to -160)
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Moneyline
As mentioned, I’m betting on the Pirates moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Pittsburgh to cover, but find more value in just taking the outright moneyline price.
Over/Under
I lean toward the Under, but I don’t trust Quantrill.
Marlins vs Pirates Betting Trends
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