Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Friday, May 30.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Friday, I preview Angels vs Guardians, Yankees vs Dodgers and more. I also have more MLB picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Friday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Friday.
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Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author’s formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Friday, May 30
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Reds vs Cubs
[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cin.png” awayname=”Reds” awayslug=”cincinnati-reds” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/chc.png” homename=”Cubs” homeslug=”chicago-cubs” date=”Friday, May 30″ time=”2:20 p.m. ET” network=”MLB Network” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+1.5″ col1awayline=”-150″ col1hometext=”-1.5″ col1homeline=”+125″ col2awaytext=”8.5″ col2hometext=”8.5″ col2awayline=”-110o / -110u” col2homeline=”-110o / -110u” col3awaytext=”+145″ col3hometext=”-175″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”BetMGM” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/40268_MGM48x48light@3x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gamematchup]
LHP Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs TBD
We should see some cross-field breeze from left to right at Wrigley on Friday, somewhere in the seven to nine MPH range.
The weather lowered my projected total for the game to 7.84, compared to 8.75 on a weather-neutral day at Wrigley.
It also activates our PRO Bet Labs system, Wrigley Field Unders, which are 296-196-24 all time (60.1% win, 15.5% ROI) and 169-105-12 (61.7% win, 18.4% ROI) in all games starting before 3 PM.
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I’m beginning to trust Reds starter Andrew Abbott, who is on pace to post a career-best strikeout rate (27.3%) and xFIP (4.08). He does well to avoid hard contact, ranking in the 92nd percentile among qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate allowed. That helps a lot, considering the Reds have evolved into a decent defensive team, ranking 16th among MLB teams in defensive runs saved and 12th in outs above average.
The Reds rank as the luckiest offense in baseball, with a .311 xwOBA compared to a .320 wOBA, and the Cubs remain one of the three best defensive teams in my model.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-106 | Play to 8 +100)
[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/05/Aaron-Judge-5.30.25.jpg” linktext=”Yankees vs Dodgers Prediction, Pick, Odds for Friday, May 30″ link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/new-york-yankees-vs-los-angeles-dodgers-prediction-pick-odds-friday-may-30-qs”][/relatedarticle]
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White Sox vs Orioles
[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cws.png” awayname=”White Sox” awayslug=”chicago-white-sox” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” homename=”Orioles” homeslug=”baltimore-orioles” date=”Friday, May 30″ time=”7:05 p.m. ET” network=”CHSN” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+1.5″ col1awayline=”-110″ col1hometext=”-1.5″ col1homeline=”-110″ col2awaytext=”9″ col2hometext=”9″ col2awayline=”-118o / -102u” col2homeline=”-118o / -102u” col3awaytext=”+180″ col3hometext=”-220″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”BetMGM” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/40268_MGM48x48light@3x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gamematchup]
RHP Sean Burke (CWS) vs RHP Zach Eflin (BAL)
These are two of baseball’s unluckiest offenses (White Sox with a .308 xwOBA and .286 woBA; Orioles with a .321 xwOBA and .305 wOBA) that have heated up in recent weeks (White Sox 131 wRC+ over the past seven days; Orioles 106 wRC+ over the past two weeks).
Oriole starter Zach Eflin has been shaky since his IL stint (lat strain), allowing 15 runs on 20 hits and four walks with only 10 strikeouts across his past 15 ⅓ innings.
White Sox starter Sean Burke has been a gascan this season (5.93 xERA, 3.7% K-BB, 4.55 botERA).
These are also two very shaky bullpens, and I projected this total at 9.74.
Pick: Over 9 (-105 | Play to -120)
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Angels vs Guardians
[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” awayname=”Angels” awayslug=”los-angeles-angels” homelogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/91388_guardians20241.png” homename=”Guardians” homeslug=”cleveland-guardians” date=”Friday, May 30″ time=”7:10 p.m. ET” network=”CLEG” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+1.5″ col1awayline=”-170″ col1hometext=”-1.5″ col1homeline=”+143″ col2awaytext=”8.5″ col2hometext=”8.5″ col2awayline=”-105o / -115u” col2homeline=”-105o / -115u” col3awaytext=”+118″ col3hometext=”-140″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”Caesars” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/463646_Caesars.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars”][/gamematchup]
RHP Jose Soriano (LAA) vs RHP Luis L. Ortiz (CLE)
Mike Trout will return for the Angels on Friday, a noticeable boost for the squad. He’s been out for a month with a knee injury. He got pretty unlucky at the plate in the first month of 2025 (.306 wOBA, .372 xwOBA) behind a .159 BABIP, so I expect some positive regression for the future first-ballot Hall of Famer.
The Angels posted an 82 wRC+ in April but a 102 wRC+ in May. Zach Neto (139 wRC+), Logan O’Hoppe (127 wRC+), Nolan Schanuel (114 wRC+), and Taylor Ward (105 wRC+) are driving the improvements.
I prefer Angels starter Jose Soriano (4.14 xERA, 3.74 xFIP, 4.45 botERA, 107 Pitching+) to Guardians starter Luis L. Ortiz (5.15 xERA, 3.82 xfIP, 4.25 botERA, 94 Pitching+).
The Guardians have the better bullpen and are slightly better defensively, but I still only projected their ML price at -110 for this game, and thus would play the Angels at +118 or better.
Pick: Angels ML (+125 | Play to +118)
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Yankees vs Dodgers
[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” awayname=”Yankees” awayslug=”new-york-yankees” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ladd.png” homename=”Dodgers” homeslug=”los-angeles-dodgers” date=”Friday, May 30″ time=”10:10 p.m. ET” network=”Apple TV+” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”-1.5″ col1awayline=”+135″ col1hometext=”+1.5″ col1homeline=”-160″ col2awaytext=”9″ col2hometext=”9″ col2awayline=”-105o / -115u” col2homeline=”-105o / -115u” col3awaytext=”-125″ col3hometext=”+105″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”Caesars” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/463646_Caesars.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars”][/gamematchup]
LHP Max Fried (NYY) vs RHP Tony Gonsolin (LAD)
Max Fried recently changed pitch grips and altered his approach against right-handed hitters, and he continues to get some situational luck (1.29 ERA, 3.36 xERA, 3.19 xFIP, 3.37 botERA).
He also has a .246 BABIP (.292 career), 83.3% stand rate (77% career) and a 5.2% HR/FB (11.7% career). His 26.6% CSW% is also his lowest since 2020 and sits below the league average mark of 27.2%.
On the other side, Tony Gonsolin has imploded a bit of late (4.76 xERA, 87 Pitching+, 5.03 botERA).
The Dodgers will start Landon Knack on Saturday and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Sunday, and they aren’t off again until June 12. That could force Gonsolin to pitch longer than Dave Roberts wants, even if he’s giving up runs.
These are also the top two offenses in MLB. New York holds a wRC+ of 129, while Los Angeles sits at 124. Now, the Dodgers are better against right-handed pitching (126 vs. 119), but the Yankees are better against lefties (144).
If Gonsolin can keep the Dodgers in it through five innings, the bullpens are very comparable (3rd vs. 5th in xFIP, 4th vs. 5th in K-BB%, 4th vs. 21st in Pitching+, 5th vs. 12th in botERA).
The same can be said about both teams’ defense (5th vs. 6th in DRS, 14th vs. 16th in OAA).
I project the Yankees at -102 with a total of 9.25, so I’d take the Dodgers at +115, which I’d play to +110. I’d also bet over 8.5 to -120 or over 9 to +100.
Pick: Dodgers ML (+115 | Play to +110) | Over 8.5 (-108 | Play to -120 or 9 +100)
Sean Zerillo’s MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, May 30
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- Angels ML (+125 | Play to +118)
- Rays ML (+145 | Play to +140)
- Dodgers ML (+115 | Play to +110)
- Reds vs Cubs Under 8.5 (-106 | Play to 8 +100)
- Brewers vs Phillies Over 9 (-115 | Play to 9.5 -105)
- White Sox vs Orioles Over 9 (-105 | Play to -120)
- Giants vs Marlins Under 8.5 (-110 | Play to 8 +100)
- Red Sox vs Braves Over 9 (-120 | Play to -125)
- Tigers vs Royals Over 8 (-108 | Play to 8.5 +100)
- Twins vs Mariners Under 7.5 (-125 | Play to -130 or 7 -110)
- Yankees vs Dodgers Over 8.5 (-108 | Play to -120 or 9 +100)
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