PRO Projections’ top home run pick (Isaac Paredes) went deep last night! Tonight’s game, Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers, is brimming with home run potential.
Three of the top five home run edges run by our betting models are in Wednesday’s D-backs vs. Dodgers nightcap. The first pitch is 10:10 p.m. ET.
Our PRO MLB homer system takes into account market odds and then factors in home run probabilities.
Let’s check out the smartest bets to make for tonight’s home run picks.
MLB Odds Tonight: Three Home Run Picks for 5/21
The conditions at Dodger Stadium are ideal for home runs, with the weather perfectly suited to the long ball. Known as one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league, Dodger Stadium offers a significant advantage to power hitters.
Home Run Pick for Wednesday: Josh Naylor (Diamondbacks)
Odds: +575
PRO Projection: 0.24
Edge: +6.5%
Starting with the Diamondbacks, Josh Naylor emerges as the top home run betting option across all games today.
Despite playing most of his games at Chase Field —a notoriously tough park for left-handed hitters— Naylor is projected to hit 0.24 homers today, and the Dodgers’ home field provides him a substantial boost.
At +575 odds on BetMGM, this pick carries an impressive 6.5% betting edge.
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/05/IMG_2356.jpeg” buttontext=”Instantly Bet Josh Naylor to Homer!” buttonlink=”https://sharpside.com/books/betmgm/passthrough?deeplinkId[0]=ML1583060179&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
Home Run Pick for Wednesday: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Diamondbacks)
Odds: +675
PRO Projection: 0.21
Edge: +6.0%
Next up is Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who boasts eight home runs this season and is projected for 0.21 homers in this game.
He’s offered at +675 odds on BetMGM, presenting solid value.
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/05/IMG_2357.jpeg” buttontext=”Instantly Bet Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to Homer!” buttonlink=”https://sharpside.com/books/betmgm/passthrough?deeplinkId[0]=ML1583067656&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
Home Run Pick for Wednesday: Pavin Smith (Diamondbacks)
Odds: +725
PRO Projection: 0.18
Edge: +4.4%
Rounding out our key picks is the left-handed hitting Pavin Smith, who, like Naylor, benefits greatly from moving to Dodger Stadium.
With a projection of 0.18 homers and +725 odds on BetMGM, Smith’s number also represents a strong betting opportunity.
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/05/IMG_2358.jpeg” buttontext=”Instantly Bet Pavin Smith to Homer!” buttonlink=”https://sharpside.com/books/betmgm/passthrough?deeplinkId[0]=ML1583052446&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.