Horse Racing Odds: Undercard, Preakness Stakes Picks for May 17

2025 Preakness Stakes Odds for Saturday

Odds via TwinSpires

I’m back with a pile of best bets for this weekend’s 2025 Preakness Stakes.

Below, we’ll dive into how to attack the main race, as well as the best picks for the smaller-profile races beforehand. The Preakness Stakes, Race 13 at Pimlico Race Course, has post time slated for 6:50 p.m. ET.

Check out all my picks below, beginning with Saturday’s main race.

2025 Preakness Stakes Odds, Picks, Predictions for May 17

Preakness Stakes Exacta: 2 / 8

Preakness Stakes Trifecta: 2 / 8 / 1,6

The Pick: #2 Journalism (8-5) ran a valiant second in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. He showed those of us who had doubts (including myself) about the competition and field sizes out West that he’s extremely talented and one of the best three year olds in the country. The biggest question will be coming back in two weeks, but he again appears to be the most talented horse in the field.

Underneath: #8 Clever Again (5-1) is the only other horse in the field to have a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure, when he won the Hot Springs Stakes at Oaklawn Park with relative ease last time out. Jockey Jose Ortiz had a ton of horse coming out of the turn and drew off from the rest of the field. He’s bred to get the distance being a son of American Pharoah and is making his fourth career start (third as a three year old), so it’s reasonable to think he can improve off that last effort.

#1 Goal Oriented (6-1) won last time out on the Derby Day uncard, albeit against allowance company. That was only his second career start and first time stretching out. He showed a different running style from his maiden score, taking them gate to wire. Given his post position and the other speed, jockey Flavien Prat will most likely have to send him out of the gates to get positioning. Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Preakness a record 8 times.

2025 Preakness Stakes Day Picks: Predictions for Saturday’s Undercard Races

• Race 7: Pick 3 – 2,8,9 / 3,7,8 / 2,4
• Race 8: Win – #3 Ancient World
• Race 9: Win – #4 Witty
• Race 9: Pick 3 – 2,4 / 1,6 / 7
• Race 9: Pick 5 – 2,4 / 1,6 / 7 / 5,6,13 / 1,2,8
• Race 10: Win – #6 Invictus
• Race 10: Pick 3 – 1,6 / 7 / 5,6,13
• Race 11: Win – #7 Reagan’s Wit (BEST BET OF THE DAY)
• Race 11: Pick 3 – 7 / 5,6,13 / 1,2,8
• Race 12: Win – #5 Abrumar

Race 7

The Pick: #9 Way to be Marie (3-1) has never missed the board at this distance on the turf in 6 career starts, winning two. Her outside post position should allow her to sit a nice stalking trip, which would allow her to get the jump on the closers. Has only shown up twice on the work tab since her last start, but trainer Rob Atras wins at 26% after a win and 21% in graded stakes.

Underneath: #2 Queen of the Mud (4-1) is one of the more lightly-raced mares in the field, making only her 10th career start and second as a five year old. To put in a graded stakes race off the bench means they think highly of her and she didn’t disappoint, finishing second in a G3 at Santa Anita. Jockey Flavien Prat is one of the best in the world and will have his choice if he sends her to the lead from the inside post or decides to stalk. While this is her first time going 1 1/16th, she won going a mile in October.

#8 Sparkle Blue (5-1) had to navigate traffic last time out and in her first start of the season had a brutal trip denying her any chance. There should be enough pace in here for her to run into and if she can avoid traffic will be in the mix at the end.

Race 8

The Pick: #3 Ancient World (6-1) has been impressive, winning both his starts. To step up into stakes company in just his third career start signals they think highly of him. Jockey Jose Ortiz seemingly had options in this race but chose to stay here and he’s been red-hot so far in 2025. Trainer Joe Sharp and Ortiz have been winning at a 31% clip when teaming up. 

Underneath: #8 One Nine Hundred (7-2) broke his maiden very impressively last time out. He also paired up his last two Beyer Speed Figures at 92 which is the best in the field. He should be the speed of the field and with no other early speed to his outside, should be able to clear over nicely.

#7 Fast Gator (7-1) was beat by a head in a very game effort last time out. He’s been on an upward trajectory and has show the ability to stalk, which, given the other speed in here, is what he will have to do.

Race 9

The Pick: #4 Witty (10-1) is making his second start off the layoff. He finished second in that first start off the bench. He followed this same pattern last year when he ran second in this race at odds of 7-2. He’s a deep closer in a 5 furlong turf sprint, which can be troublesome, but there’s plenty of pace for him to run into. In addition, he gets Prat aboard. All systems go.

Underneath: #2 No Nay Hudson (5-2) always seems to be around at the finish but only has three wins from 14 career turf starts. Wesley Ward is exceptional with turf sprinters … That said, 5-2 seems a little short but it’s interesting that Junior Alvarado gets the call as he and Ward have won five out of eight starts together over the last 12 months.

Race 10

The Pick: #6 Invictus (9-5) was ultra impressive in his maiden-breaking score last time out. It was his first start as a three year old. He’s stretching out in distance but that shouldn’t be a problem given his breeding, and trainer Brad Cox is 37% going from sprint to route. His 90 Beyer Speed Figure is highest last out and the highest of any horse ever in the field. That, plus he’s likely to improve second off the layoff, is why he’s the top pick.

Underneath: #1 Crudo (5-2) is also coming off an impressive maiden victory. He was under a hand ride the entire time, opening up on the field in the lane. There appears to be other early speed in this race so the question becomes what happens if he doesn’t get the lead. In his debut he didn’t break well and while he was able to pass horses after rushing up he faded in the lane to finish fourth more than seven lengths back.

Race 11

The Pick: #7 Reagan’s Wit (5-2) has been facing much tougher competition, not only from a class perspective, but also from the quality of horses. Two back he finished second to Zulu Kingdom who won going away in a Grade 1 at Churchill Downs on Derby day. Last time out he was the odds-on favorite but dealt with traffic trouble. His Beyer Speed Figures put him above the rest and while he’s a closer, there appears to be enough pace for him to run into.

Race 12

The Pick: #5 Abrumar (20-1) had traffic trouble in his last start, where he saved all the ground on the rail, but was stuck behind a wall of horses coming out of the turn. When he finally was able to get out in the clear, he was moving best and won the gallop out. That was also his first start in seven months, which was the longest layoff of his career. Trainer Saffie Joseph and jockey Jose Ortiz are 30% when teaming up. Look for him to upset the field at a big price.

Underneath: #13 Trikari (5-2) ran third to arguably the best older turf male in the country in Carl Spackler last time out. Trikari’s versatile running style make him very dangerous as there doesn’t appear to be a clear cut pace setting. His five career victories have come at five different tracks, showcasing his ability to travel well.

#6 Balnikhov (9-2) won this race last year at a very similar price. He’s a deep closer and without much early speed it begs the question if he will get the necessary pace to run into. That said, he’s won over $1M on the turf and jockey Flavien Prat is one of the very best, especially on the turf.

2025 Full Preakness Day Picks

• Race 7: Pick 3 – 2,8,9 / 3,7,8 / 2,4
• Race 8: Win – #3 Ancient World
• Race 9: Win – #4 Witty
• Race 9: Pick 3 – 2,4 / 1,6 / 7
• Race 9: Pick 5 – 2,4 / 1,6 / 7 / 5,6,13 / 1,2,8
• Race 10: Win – #6 Invictus
• Race 10: Pick 3 – 1,6 / 7 / 5,6,13
• Race 11: Win – #7 Reagan’s Wit (BEST BET OF THE DAY)
• Race 11: Pick 3 – 7 / 5,6,13 / 1,2,8
• Race 12: Win – #5 Abrumar
• Race 13: Exacta – 2 / 8
• Race 13: Trifecta – 2 / 8 / 1,6

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