There’s a small, six-game slate on Thursday, May 15, but that didn’t stop our MLB betting experts and systems from finding the best value on the board.
They’ve targeted a MLB prop, over/under pick and a moneyline — two of which are at plus money! So, let’s get right into today’s MLB best bets.
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MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Washington Nationals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png” secondfullname=”Atlanta Braves” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png”][/teammatchup] | 12:15 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Houston Astros” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” secondfullname=”Texas Rangers” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png”][/teammatchup] | 8:05 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Oakland Athletics” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png”][/teammatchup] | 10:10 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Derek Carty’s Nationals vs Braves Pick: Value on Smith-Shawver”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”AJ Smith-Shawver Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+150)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png” awayname=”Washington Nationals” awayslug=”washington-nationals” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” homename=”Atlanta Braves” homeslug=”atlanta-braves” date=”Thursday, May 15″ time=”12:15 p.m. ET” network=”MLB Network” bookname=”Hard Rock Sportsbook” bookprimarylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/Hard-Rock.png” bookreviewslug=”hard-rock-sportsbook”][/gameheader]
By Derek Carty
There may be some value on A.J. Smith-Shawver’s walks allowed prop. THE BAT X is projecting him for 1.47 walks allowed and oddsmakers are implying 1.94. The model believes there is a 56% chance he records fewer than two walks allowed. If you can get the under at +150 or better, there is great value here.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: AJ Smith-Shawver Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+150)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Washington Nationals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png” secondfullname=”Atlanta Braves” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Houston Astros” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” secondfullname=”Texas Rangers” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Oakland Athletics” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bet Labs’ Astros vs Rangers Best Bet: Favorable Spot to Play the Under”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Under 7.5 (-122)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” awayname=”Houston Astros” awayslug=”houston-astros” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” homename=”Texas Rangers” homeslug=”texas-rangers” date=”Thursday, May 15″ time=”8:05 p.m. ET” network=”MLB Network” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
By Bet Labs
Both teams have solid win percentages (51%–100%), but the public is heavily favoring the over (≤35% under bets), which triggers this system.
In matchups between winning teams, sportsbooks often inflate totals due to perceived offensive capability. However, these teams also tend to have strong pitching and tighter late-game execution, which can lead to a profitable edge on the under.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-122)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Washington Nationals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png” secondfullname=”Atlanta Braves” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Houston Astros” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” secondfullname=”Texas Rangers” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Oakland Athletics” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bet Labs’ Athletics vs Dodgers Best Bet: Fade the Dodgers?”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Athletics Moneyline (+175)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” awayname=”Oakland Athletics” awayslug=”oakland-athletics” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” homename=”Los Angeles Dodgers” homeslug=”los-angeles-dodgers” date=”Thursday, May 15″ time=”10:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”ESPN BET” bookprimarylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/11/ESPNBET-rect-2colorway-e1700601975338.png” bookreviewslug=”espn-bet”][/gameheader]
By Bet Labs
Fading the Dodgers is always scary, but this system has a 10% ROI since 2006, so let’s trust the math. The “Contrarian Betting Against Good Teams” system fades elite teams (60%+ win rate) when public money is heavily skewed against the underdog (≤35% backing).
It targets road underdogs on minor losing streaks (1-3 games) in the regular season. The idea is that betting markets often overprice good teams, especially at home, which creates value on contrarian visitors. Despite a low win rate, big plus-money payouts generate positive ROI in this system.
Pick: Athletics Moneyline (+175)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Washington Nationals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png” secondfullname=”Atlanta Braves” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Houston Astros” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” secondfullname=”Texas Rangers” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Oakland Athletics” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png”][/teammatchup] |
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