The Boston Red Sox (22-24) host the Atlanta Braves (23-22) on Saturday, May 17, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FOX.
Find my Braves vs Red Sox prediction and pick for Saturday below.
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- Braves vs Red Sox Picks: Braves Moneyline (+100 | Play to -110)
My Braves vs Red Sox best bet is the Atlanta moneyline. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox Odds
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Braves vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Grant Holmes (ATL) | Stat | RHP Lucas Giolito (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | W-L | 1-1 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 4.14 / 4.59 | ERA /xERA | 5.51 / 3.96 |
| 5.19 / 3.96 | FIP / xFIP | 3.72 / 3.81 |
| 1.18 | WHIP | 1.29 |
| 12.4 | K-BB% | 14.7 |
| 47.5 | GB% | 42.9 |
| 90 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 100 | Location+ | 105 |
Braves vs Red Sox Preview, Predictions
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Chris Sale vanquished his old club in the series opener last night to notch the Braves’ fourth win in their previous five games.
After an abysmal start to the season, the Braves are now back over .500, and are in line to improve their record tonight.
The Braves’ resurgence stems from their veteran lineup heating up. They come into this matchup ranked seventh among MLB lineups in hard-hit rate and sixth in average exit velocity.
They face Red Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito on Saturday, who has had a rough go of it through three starts. He holds a 5.51 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and hasn’t missed many bats.
Giolito has been riddled with injuries over the last few seasons and is nowhere near the pitcher he was five years ago. His command has improved, but his stuff hasn’t.
His being around the zone more often may be a detriment, as the Braves should square him up frequently tonight.
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On the flip side of this matchup, the Boston Red Sox have been dangerous at the dish, but their bullpen struggles and lack of rotation depth have forced them to outslug their opposition, which has not been a winning formula of late.
Nonetheless, the Red Sox lineup is a proven threat, ranking in the top two among MLB teams in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity. When they make contact, it is often loud, but that has become a big issue as they also have the third-highest whiff rate in the majors.
Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes will be tasked with containing this lineup, and many metrics point to him struggling. Holmes has allowed a great deal of loud contact, but a closer look at his numbers shows he’s been excellent at working around traffic because of his ability to generate groundballs.
Among qualified pitchers, Holmes’s groundball and strikeout rates are in the 71st and 60th percentiles, respectively. While neither is eye-popping, Holmes is above average, and each is key to his success against this Boston lineup.
If Holmes can get ahead of hitters and keep the ball on the ground, he’ll have another successful outing.
Braves vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
While both lineups project for offensive success in this matchup, the Braves have the slight pitching advantage, both with Holmes and the bullpen arms behind him.
Look for the Braves’ bats to get going early against Giolito and dig a hole that the Red Sox won’t be able to slug their way out of.
Pick: Braves ML (+100, DraftKings | Play to -110)
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Braves vs Red Sox Betting Trends
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