Mets vs Yankees Predictions, Picks, Saturday MLB Odds

The Subway Series continues on Saturday, May 17, as the New York Yankees (26-18) take on the New York Mets (28-17) at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is set for 1:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on YES and SNY.

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After dropping the series opener, the Mets hand the ball to the resurgent Griffin Canning. He’ll be opposed fellow right-hander Clarke Schmidt. The Yankees enter Saturday as -134 moneyline favorites; the game total is 10 (-113o / -108u).

Find my Yankees vs Mets predictions in my Subway Series preview for Saturday below, as well as the latest MLB odds, starting lineups, probable pitchers, betting trends and more.

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• Mets vs Yankees pick: Under 10; bet to Under 9.5 (-105 | Play to -120)

My Mets vs Yankees best bet is Under 9.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

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Mets vs Yankees Odds, Spread, Over/Under

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Mets vs Yankees Preview, Saturday Prediction

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Mets Starting Lineup

1. Francisco Lindor SS
2. Juan Soto RF
3. Pete Alonso 1B
4. Brandon Nimmo LF
5. Mark Vientos DH
6. Jeff McNeil 2B
7. Luis Torrens C
8. Brett Baty 3B
9. Tyrone Taylor CF

Starting pitcher: Griffin Canning

Right-hander Griffin Canning takes the mound for the Mets in this matchup, and he looks to continue his dominant start to 2025.

Through eight starts, Canning is 5-1 with a 2.36 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally impressive.

Canning ranks in the top half of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), strikeout rate and barrel rate.

Following Canning is one of the best bullpens in baseball. Entering this matchup, the Mets’ relief staff ranks fourth in ERA, third in FIP, fourth in xFIP and third in WAR.

However, this elite pitching staff may struggle to receive run support against right-hander Clarke Schmidt, who takes the mound for the Yankees.

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Yankees Starting Lineup

1. Ben Rice DH
2. Aaron Judge RF
3. Cody Bellinger CF
4. Paul Goldschmidt 1B
5. Jasson Dominguez LF
6. Anthony Volpe SS
7. J.C. Escarra C
8. DJ LeMahieu 2B
9. Jorbit Vivas 3B

Starting pitcher: Clarke Schmidt

Analytically, Schmidt is one of the stronger pitchers in baseball.

This season, the former first-round draft pick ranks in the top quarter of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. His mediocre surface-level stats are largely due to one poor outing against the Cleveland Guardians.

In his three starts since then, Schmidt is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA.

This success is likely to continue against the Mets. Through two outings against them, Schmidt is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA.

Like the Mets, the Yankees also possess one of the stronger bullpens in the league. They rank ninth in ERA, fourth in FIP, sixth in xFIP and fifth in WAR.

Mets vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis

Both of these pitching staffs are among the best in baseball. Each bullpen ranks in the top tier of the league, while both Canning and Schmidt profile highly among starting pitchers.

The reason for the high total is that both lineups are also strong.

However, these pitching staffs are capable of keeping the game under 9.5 runs.

Pick: Under 10; Bet to Under 9.5 (-105 | Play to -120)

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Moneyline

I lean toward the Yankees, but don’t want to fade Canning.

Run Line (Spread)

I also like the Yankees to cover, but I am staying away for the same reason listed above.

Over/Under

As mentioned, I’m betting Under 9.5.

Mets vs Yankees Betting Trends

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Mets Trends

• Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 0 of Mets’ last 5 games
• Mets starting pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 20%

Yankees Trends

• Yankees are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 10 of Yankees’ 22 last games at home

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