The Chicago Cubs (25-19) host the Chicago White Sox (14-30) on Friday, May 16, 2025. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
No venue in baseball is more receptive to wind than Wrigley, and with 20 mph winds blowing out, the total is set at 11.5 (-120o / -102u) on Friday with the Cubs as -230 moneyline favorites.
Find my White Sox vs Cubs predictions and parlay picks below, as well as the latest MLB odds, probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
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- Under 11.5
- Cubs Moneyline
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Hit
Parlay Odds: +255 (Fanatics)
My White Sox vs Cubs best bet for Friday is on the under. If you want a parlay, I feel good about tacking on the Cubs moneyline and Pete Crow-Armstrong to log a hit.
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White Sox vs Cubs Odds, Lines
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White Sox vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Shane Smith (CWS) | Stat | RHP Cade Horton (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 2.08 / 3.34 | ERA /xERA | 6.75 / 2.72 |
| 3.03 / 4.17 | FIP / xFIP | 4.60 / 3.16 |
| 1.08 | WHIP | 1.00 |
| 13% | K-BB% | 27.8% |
| 44.9% | GB% | 27.3% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 105 | Location+ | 94 |
White Sox vs Cubs Preview, Prediction
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Rookie Shane Smith is quietly having a really strong start to his career on the South Side.
The White Sox selected Smith from the Milwaukee Brewers with the first selection of the Rule 5 Draft over the offseason and he made Chicago’s Opening Day roster. Smith has been the best pitcher on the White Sox, posting a 2.08 ERA through his first six starts.
Smith has a fastball that sits in the upper 90s that has been terrific, and he pairs it well with mostly his changeup and slider. He added the changeup to his arsenal this season and it has been his best pitch.
Smith has allowed more than two runs in an outing just once all year and is coming off a career-best seven-strikeout performance.
It is hard to believe, but the White Sox offense has actually been worse so far this season than they were last year. They hit .225 as a team with a .627 OPS in last season’s disaster; they are hitting just .214 with a .613 OPS this year.
Chicago’s two catchers are the only players in its lineup with a wRC+ above 100, which is considered league average. In fact, they are the only two players with a wRC+ above 90. Nobody on this team has hit more than five home runs.
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Former first-round pick Cade Horton will make his first career start on Friday after making his MLB debut last weekend.
The Cubs‘ No. 2 overall prospect entered the game after an opener and showed mixed results. He allowed three runs and four hits across four innings but struck out five batters.
One thing that was clear for Horton: he has the stuff to succeed at the MLB level.
He throws a fastball that touched 97 mph and a wipeout slider that generated five whiffs. Horton also threw one changeup in the game, a nasty one on a 2-2 count to strike out Juan Soto and help secure his first career win.
Behind Horton will be an offense that is firing on all cylinders. The Cubs are second in the league in runs scored and are top five in team OPS and home runs.
This lineup does everything well — they generate walks, run the bases well, and hit for power.
Offseason acquisition Kyle Tucker has made an instant impact, leading the team with a .897 OPS, but the biggest story might be the breakout of Pete Crow-Armstrong.
We knew PCA was going to play elite defense and cause havoc on the bases, but he has already clubbed 11 home runs and has an .844 OPS.
White Sox vs Cubs Prediction, Over/Under Pick
Smith has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his eight starts this season. He has surrendered just one home run all year and does an elite job at preventing opponents from barreling him up. Smith has been able to keep the ball on the ground over 47% of the time, ranking in the top third of the league.
Horton got tagged for a three-run home run in his MLB debut but otherwise showed the flashes of brilliance that made him the Cubs’ top pitching prospect.
His fastball averaged 96 mph, his slider had a 36% whiff rate, and he broke out his changeup at the biggest moment to punch out Soto.
I understand the temperatures are going to be warm and the wind will be blowing out and that Friday is going to be a hitter’s paradise.
The Cubs have one of the best offenses in baseball. But the White Sox still have the lowest team OPS in the league. They have been even worse than last year. They have one position hitting at a league-average level, and nobody who is a real threat to hit the ball out of the yard.
These are two rookie pitchers with very little experience. But Smith has been terrific this season, and Horton is a highly touted prospect and former first-round pick.
As scary as it is knowing every pop fly has a chance to get blown into the bleachers, this total is just too high.
Pick: Under 11.5
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no bet for the run line.
Over/Under
The total on Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field is too high. Play under 11.5.
White Sox vs Cubs Betting Trends
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White Sox vs Cubs Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Wrigley Field in Chicago, Ill. |
| Date: | Friday, May 16 |
| Time: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | MLB Network |
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