I’m swinging for the fences with a three-leg MLB parlay Friday using a bonus bet from BetMGM. Obviously, I’m turning directly to our predictive PRO Projections to help make the selections.
Below, we’ll cover three of the best bets from our models Friday, which produces a gaudy +21500 parlay. Friday’s predictions include home runs, and doubles (that’s right, we have experts crunching odds in the doubles market!).
Odds on Friday’s MLB picks are +700, +575 and +370, and I’ll also be playing all three straight.
Using our in-house PRO data, park factors, best odds and more, let’s get into three MLB prop picks today.
We’ll include a parlay slip you can instantly tail Friday night for those interested in a low-risk, high-reward bet.
MLB Home Run Predictions, Prop Parlay for 5/9
Friday’s PRO home run grades are noteworthy because the May 9 slate marks the first game of the series for nearly the entire league.
I personally love fresh slates, particularly to gauge which hitters our PRO Projections like — or dislike! — in new environments and matchups.
Here’s who I’m rolling with to clear the fences, along with PRO’s best bet to hit a double.
Home Run Pick for Friday: Wilmer Flores (Giants)
Odds: +700
PRO Projection: 0.19
Edge: +5.2%
Our first home run pick of the day is Wilmer Flores of the San Francisco Giants, who faces an intriguing matchup against the Minnesota Twins.
Target Field, home of the Twins, ranks as the seventh most favorable ballpark for right-handed power hitters, offering an excellent environment for Flores to capitalize. Interestingly, Flores plays his home games in one of the toughest parks for right-handed home run hitters, ranking third worst.
As a right-handed pull hitter, this gives him a solid advantage in today’s contest. He has already launched seven homers this season, and PRO Projections tab Flores for 0.19 homers tonight. The best available odds are +700 at BetMGM, making this a valuable betting opportunity.
Home Run Pick for Friday: Brandon Lowe (Rays)
Odds: +575
PRO Projection: 0.21
Edge: +4.1%
Next is Brandon Lowe of the Tampa Bay Rays, who is set to face the Milwaukee Brewers. Lowe has hit four home runs so far this year. Although his whiff rate is somewhat high, the Brewers’ starting pitcher, Jose Quintana, does not typically generate a lot of swings and misses.
PRO Projections estimate a 0.21 probability for Lowe to hit a home run at his home park, where conditions are more favorable. BetMGM currently offers the best price at +575, presenting an enticing betting edge.
Meanwhile, PRO Projections’ best bet to hit a double is Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers vs. the D-backs. Ohtani is +370 at FanDuel as best odds.
Action PRO models estimate 0.37 doubles for Ohtani tonight. Chase Field, home of the Diamondbacks, is the No. 1 park for doubles this year. It’s a 9.6% edge on Ohtani to record a double Friday.
Parlaying all three is best at BetMGM, which produces a 215-1 ticket.
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Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high-grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.