I’m back with another round of home run parlays, this time focusing on the MLB night slate.
With two power-packed picks lined up, I’m diving into the matchups between the Orioles and Twins, as well as the Blue Jays and Orioles.
Tonight’s home run picks boast straight odds of +500 and +600. When combined, they present an enticing parlay opportunity at +4100 on bet365.
Here’s who I’m banking on to launch one out of the park in the night slate, utilizing our predictive MLB models.
MLB Picks Tonight: Late Slate Home Run Predictions, Parlay
As these models crunch the numbers and analyze key factors, they highlight certain hitters as prime candidates worth backing for a home run.
These two players, in fact, are PRO Projections’ top two edges for the entire May 7 slate.
Home Run Pick for Wednesday: Royce Lewis (Twins)
First up is Twins star Royce Lewis. The most favorable odds for bettors can be found at BetMGM, offering +600, a price that seems undervalued.
While Lewis was listed around +500 to hit a homer last night, Wednesday’s game presents an even better opportunity.
According to our PRO Projections system, Lewis, a former No. 1 overall draft pick, has a 0.23 probability of hitting one out, highlighting an edge exceeding 6%. Most sportsbooks have him at +540, but BetMGM’s +600 remains an advantageous offer.
Last night, he saw four at-bats, putting each ball in play, despite not getting a hit. Game two of the series unfolds at home, where Target Field ranks as the eighth-best stadium for home runs, based on Park Factors.
Lewis draws starter Charlie Morton, who’s currently struggling with an 0-6 record and an ERA over nine.
Home Run Pick for Wednesday: Vlad Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays)
Another strong option is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the Blue Jays vs. Angels game. Bet365 offers +500, with our projections indicating a 0.27 probability, representing the biggest edge tonight (7%).
Angel Stadium is No. 4 in home runs, per park factors, giving Guerrero a solid boost to clear the fences Wednesday.
Parlaying both is best at bet365, which produces odds of +4100.
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.