Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi, Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 315

Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi Odds, Prediction

Check out my Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi predictions, picks and odds for UFC 315 on Saturday, May 10.

UFC legend Jose Aldo returns to the octagon Saturday night to take on the surging Aiemann Zahabi in a striker’s delight. Both of these men possess an abundance of varied attacks that can damage their opponent from all angles. Despite only one year in age difference,  the careers of each may be heading in opposite directions. That makes it quite clear which of the two is the value side at UFC315.

Here’s my Aldo vs. Zahabi prediction.

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Tale of the Tape

Anybody that has watched MMA for any period of time over the last 10 to 15 years knows exactly what to expect from Jose Aldo. Aldo’s strikes are razor sharp, and most of his opponents have looked to do anything other than stand in front of him in a striking battle.

With that said, at almost 39, it is fair to question whether or not Aldo is able to keep up the pace and produce the output needed for a full three rounds against the upper-echelon of the division. Winning moments throughout the fight may not be enough to get his hand raised at this level, and he has not won by finish in the UFC in over six years.

Aiemann Zahabi seems to be improving at age 37, with career best performances in his last two appearances. Zahabi is very defensively sound with an impressive striking defense rate above 70%. In his last bout against veteran Pedro Munhoz, Zahabi did not match the output of his opponent, but he was incredibly accurate and forced Munhoz to miss constantly.

Zahabi was able to fight behind his jab, all the while getting his head off the center line as Munhoz pressed forward. Munhoz landed just 29% of his strikes, while Zahabi landed 52% of his significant strikes attempted.

Aldo will not present the same challenge as far as output goes, and he will need to get off to a fast start because Zahabi has proven he can remain sharp and accurate for the duration of the fight. Aldo’s significant strike accuracy decreased as each round progressed in his most recent loss to Mario Bautista.

This fight was scheduled to take place at bantamweight but was moved to featherweight 36 hours before they stepped into the octagon due to Aldo being unable to continue his weight cut. Both made the new weight class, though Zahabi seemed fresh on the scales while Aldo appeared to be struggling.

While that is not a major factor in my handicap, it is likely a positive sign for Zahabi. His price had adjusted about ten cents based on the news.

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Aldo vs. Zahabi Prediction

Also has aged quite gracefully in MMA terms and there are no obvious signs he has begun deteriorating as a fighter.

With that said, usually when those signs are apparent to the novice bettor, it is much too late to take advantage of them. Even a small decrease in speed or cardio would make this fight look like Zahabi should be the -200 favorite of the two.

If both men fight near their recent form, I still line this fight much closer to a pick em’, making Zahabi a tremendous value at +170. Plus, the issues on the scale are a concern for Aldo.

While I took this bet at +170 at Caesars before that news broke, the best line is now +164 at FanDuel.

John’s Pick: Aiemann Zahabi +164 (FanDuel)

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