In a galaxy not so far away, 16 Major League Baseball games line the odds board.
Our MLB betting experts came through with three best bets for Star Wars Day, including picks for Rays vs. Yankees, Guardians vs. Blue Jays and Game 2 of the Mets vs. Cardinals doubleheader.
Let’s dive into our MLB best bets and top Major League Baseball picks for Sunday, May 4. May the Fourth be with you.
Note: While parlaying these picks isn’t our official recommendation, we’ve put together an easy way to do so below.
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Sunday MLB Best Bets, Prop Picks, Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”New York Mets” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” secondfullname=”St. Louis Cardinals” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-st-louis-cardinals.png”][/teammatchup] | 5:15 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Tampa Bay Rays” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png” secondfullname=”New York Yankees” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png”][/teammatchup] | 12:35 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” secondfullname=”Toronto Blue Jays” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png”][/teammatchup] | 12:37 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Rays vs Yankees Pick”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Taj Bradley Under 5.5 Strikeouts” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png” awayname=”Tampa Bay Rays” awayslug=”tampa-bay-rays” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” homename=”New York Yankees” homeslug=”new-york-yankees” date=”Sunday, May 4″ time=”12:35 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Jim Turvey
There are worrying signs for Taj Bradley on Sunday.
Here are his Stuff+ numbers for his last four starts: 109, 102, 100 and 97. His velocity is down a mile per hour, and he’s failing to generate whiffs, with only 11 in his last two starts combined.
Now, he draws a Yankee lineup that has been demolishing everything in its sight.
They do have a high whiff rate, but with the Stuff+ drop Bradley has suffered, it’s going to be hard to generate whiffs in what could very well be a short outing.
Pick: Taj Bradley Under 5.5 Strikeouts
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Tampa Bay Rays” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png” secondfullname=”New York Yankees” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” secondfullname=”Toronto Blue Jays” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New York Mets” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” secondfullname=”St. Louis Cardinals” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-st-louis-cardinals.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Guardians vs Blue Jays Pick”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Guardians F5 ML -106″ league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” awayname=”Cleveland Guardians” awayslug=”cleveland-guardians” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” homename=”Toronto Blue Jays” homeslug=”toronto-blue-jays” date=”Sunday, May 4″ time=”12:37 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
Tanner Bibee has gotten off to a rough start this season, but it’s really only been a couple of bad outings.
The Angels tagged him for seven earned runs in his second start of the year, and the Orioles got to him for six earned runs in mid-April.
Bibee has allowed a total of three earned runs in his other four starts. The seven home runs he has allowed bit him in the bad starts, but his 23.1% HR/FB is likely to regress.
The cutter was Bibee’s best pitch last season. It graded out as one of the best offerings in the league with a +14 run value. He led with it last time out against Minnesota, throwing it 37% of the time in a dominant outing (7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER).
On the Toronto side. Bowden Francis has also struggled to begin the season, but his issues look much less fixable. He’s been hit incredibly hard this season, ranking in the fifth percentile in hard-hit rate and in the eighth percentile in barrel rate.
Francis leads the league in home runs allowed with 11. His 27.5% HR/FB will also likely regress, but the loud contact is there.
The type of contact that leads to homers is also there. Francis has allowed a 32.3% pulled air contact rate, the eighth-highest mark in the league. His xERA (7.45) and xBA (.322) rank in the second and third percentiles, respectively.
Neither offense has been great this year, but Cleveland has shown more life.
The Guardians rank 19th in wRC+ against righties since the start of April. Toronto is bottom-two in most offensive categories against right-handers in that span, battling with the White Sox for the basement.
Cleveland has a clear pitching edge and a slight hitting edge, so I like getting it as a ‘dog.
Pick: Guardians F5 ML -106
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| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Tampa Bay Rays” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png” secondfullname=”New York Yankees” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” secondfullname=”Toronto Blue Jays” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New York Mets” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” secondfullname=”St. Louis Cardinals” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-st-louis-cardinals.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Mets vs Cardinals Game 2 Pick”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Mets ML -142″ league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” awayname=”New York Mets” awayslug=”new-york-mets” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-st-louis-cardinals.png” homename=”St. Louis Cardinals” homeslug=”st.-louis-cardinals” date=”Sunday, May 4″ time=”5:15 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Brit Devine
I really wanted yesterday’s matchup of Tylor Megill vs. Erick Fedde that got rained out, but groundball specialist Andre Pallante will have to do instead.
It’s always a little risky betting the second game of a doubleheader before lineups come out, but I have so much faith in Megill and the bullpen that I’m willing to bet this early.
Megill has been one of the better pitchers in baseball this year and has dominated left-handed batters like no right-handed pitcher should be able to. There will likely be some regression with Megill’s insane stats against left-handed batters, but even so, it’s hard to overstate the pitching advantage New York has in this one.
The Mets tagged Pallante for four runs earlier this year despite his high groundball ability and should be able to do that again as long as most of their key players play in Game 2.
If you have any reservations, hold off until you see the lineups and make sure the main guys are mostly there. I’m firing to win two units on this early, as I expect this line to move as the day progresses.
Pick: Mets ML -142
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