Bettors eyeing longshots to win Saturday’s Kentucky Derby may be on to something.
“Some might argue against this, but I don’t believe that there’s a true standout in this field,” said Action Network horse racing expert Mike Conti. “And I think that we’ve got a deep field, which from a betting perspective makes it really exciting.”
Conti and fellow Action expert Sean Zerillo dug into all kinds of horse racing betting topics surrounding Saturday’s Kentucky Derby on the Action Network Podcast.
Below, readers can get a better glimpse at the experts’ favorite win contenders and longshot picks to use underneath, as well as how these form their exactas, exacta boxes and trifecta predictions.
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2025 Kentucky Derby Odds for Saturday
| Post | Horse | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 20-1 |
| 2 | Neoequos | 50-1 |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 30-1 |
| 5 | American Promise | 30-1 |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | 30-1 |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | 10-1 |
| 8 | Journalism | 3-1 |
| 9 | Burnham Square | 8-1 |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | 36-1 |
| 12 | East Avenue | 35-1 |
| 13 | Publisher | 20-1 |
| 14 | Tiztastic | 15-1 |
| 15 | Render Judgment | 50-1 |
| 16 | Coal Battle | 30-1 |
| 17 | Sandman | 5-1 |
| 18 | Sovereignty | 9-2 |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | 20-1 |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | 50-1 |
| 21 | Baeza | 50-1 |
Odds via TwinSpires as of Friday. Use our TwinSpires promo code ACTIONRACING to get a $400 Sign Up Offer!
Kentucky Derby Predictions: Win Contenders, Longshots, Exactas, Trifectas
Kentucky Derby Win Contenders
Win Contender: #7 Luxor Cafe, shipping over from Japan where he’s won his last four starts. His sire is American Pharoah who won this race back in 2015. He has a strong late kick, which will be key in a race with a lot of early pace. – Mike Conti
Win Contender: #8 Journalism (3-1). The deserving morning-line favorite comes in with the highest last out Beyer Speed Figure (102). While he looks to be the most-talented horse in the field, he’s only beat 12 horses in his last three starts combined. He will need to beat 18 others in the Derby. He’s bred top and bottom to get the distance and has a ferocious closing kick. For Journalism, it will all come down to the trip. – Mike Conti
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Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks
Both Conti and Zerillo agree there’s value on Final Gambit as a longshot.
“He’s also been taking to the Churchill Downs track really well this week, and that is super important because this is a synthetic specialist horse — it’s a mystery how he was going to look on this track — but he had a humongous final workout,” Zerillo said. “The distance should not be a problem for him. I think he should ultimately be in the mix at the end.”
Conti, meanwhile, flagged Final Gambit’s win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks as important, noting five of the last 22 to win have hit the board in the Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Derby Exacta, Exacta Box Picks
Zerillo’s Exacta Box: 8,9,21
Conti’s Exacta: 7,8 / 3,7,8,17,21
Kentucky Derby Trifecta Picks
Conti’s Trifecta: 7,8 / 3,7,8,9,17,18,19,21/ 3,7,8,9,17,18,19,21
Check out more Kentucky Derby best bets and insights below!
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