Recently, I introduced the world to the S&K 500, which will see me break down the starting pitchers for any given night and is 11-1 since being introduced.
Tonight, I have two bets, one in Rays vs. Diamondbacks and another in Brewers vs. Giants.
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[quickslipbasic bookname=”FanDuel” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/53766_FanDuel@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-23-at-12.42.17%E2%80%AFPM.png” buttontext=”Tail This Pick Instantly!” buttonlink=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v2/deeplink?deeplinkId[0]=ML1503750375&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-142)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tb.png” awayname=”Rays” awayslug=”tampa-bay-rays” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” homename=”Diamondbacks” homeslug=”arizona-diamondbacks” date=”Wednesday, April 23″ time=”9:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”Caesars” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/256064_caesars_800x200.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars”][/gameheader]
Eduardo Rodriguez joins the hallowed halls of Club 17 today as he’s rocking a Priority Score of +17.8 in the S&K500. For those new here: Priority Score is my way of combining two key parts of my process — a pitcher’s stock rating (based on expected K% model and various other factors I laid out in my primer) and the projected edge in my K-prop sims.
When those two align, the play tends to pop. Club 17 members are now 11-1. No, I don’t think this is going to stay at a 91% win rate forever, but it’s proving to be a strong signal for how I’ve long attacked K props.
Rodriguez’s raw 30.2% strikeout rate looks incredible, but my expected-strikeout model has him closer to 21%, which lines up more with what we’ve seen from him in recent seasons. His pitch mix hasn’t changed much, but his sinker has weirdly become his second-most productive strikeout pitch (6 strikeouts on just 11% usage), thanks to an unsustainable 43% putaway rate. Sinkers aren’t typically put away pitches, this is noise.
[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/04/Raysssss.jpg” linktext=”Rays vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Pick, Odds for Wednesday, April 23″ link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/tampa-bay-rays-vs-arizona-diamondbacks-prediction-pick-odds-wednesday-april-23-qs”][/relatedarticle]
He’s also seeing a spike in called strikes, a stat that tends to normalize over time and one Rodriguez has historically been just average at. That’s where the Rays come in. They swing at pitches in the zone at the sixth-highest rate in baseball, which should limit those freebies.
Oh, Rodriguez is also rocking a career-high 34% chase rate. That’s also coming down and Tampa’s league-average chase profile should help make that regression happen.
This is a classic sell-high spot on a pitcher whose surface stats are outpacing his underlying skillset. I project the fair price for this under closer to -170.
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[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Logan Webb Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+104)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png” awayname=”Brewers” awayslug=”milwaukee-brewers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sf.png” homename=”Giants” homeslug=”san-francisco-giants” date=”Wednesday, April 23″ time=”9:45 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
Webb checks in with a +20.8 Priority Score, earning himself a wristband to Club 17, which, if you’re new here, is reserved for any pitcher with a score of 17+ in my S&K500 model (now 11-1 overall). Reminder: this score can shift if the confirmed lineup differs or the odds move significantly.
Webb’s been phenomenal to start the season with a 32.8% K rate. And unlike someone like Rodriguez, my expected K% model is actually buying into the hot start. I’ve got Webb closer to 24.8%, which would be his highest mark since 2021. That’s important: this isn’t a “Webb is fraudulent” fade. This is a market fade.
Even after bumping Webb’s baseline, I’m still showing slight value on the under, which tells me the books might be pushing things a bit too far.
[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/04/webb1.png” linktext=”Brewers vs Giants Prediction, Pick, Odds for Wednesday, April 23″ link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/milwaukee-brewers-vs-san-francisco-giants-prediction-pick-odds-wednesday-april-23-qs”][/relatedarticle]
He’s also benefited from a friendly schedule. This will be his first matchup against a team in the bottom half of MLB in K rate. The Brewers have the 11th-lowest K% and are one of the league’s most disciplined teams.
Webb’s approach is zone-heavy early with his sinker (38–40% usage), then he uses his sweeper/changeup/cutter trio to induce chases and finish off hitters. However, the Brewers chase at the fifth-lowest rate in MLB, and they also match up well against Webb’s pitch mix:
Sinker: 9th-lowest whiff rate
Sweeper: 14th-lowest
Changeup: 18th-lowest
Cutter: 3rd-lowest (!)
That cutter has become a key setup pitch this year, especially vs left-handed hitters. But if Milwaukee continues making early contact, it could short-circuit Webb’s path to strikeouts by keeping him out of two-strike counts.
I only project this closer to -120, so it’s not some massive edge, but it’s a clear sell-high spot on a pitcher we like, just not at this number against this opponent.
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