There are 8 games on the MLB slate for Monday, April 21 and our experts have found betting value in a trio of those contests.
If you like homers, today is your lucky day because there are 3 MLB home run prop picks among today’s best bets, including a prop prediction for Reds’ superstar Elly De La Cruz.
So, enough meandering. Let’s get to the picks. Today’s MLB best bets are below.
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-21-at-7.59.10%E2%80%AFAM.png” buttontext=”Parlay These Picks Instantly!” buttonlink=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v2/deeplink?deeplinkId[0]=ML1498046893&deeplinkId[1]=ML1498036880&deeplinkId[2]=ML1498029837&deeplinkId[3]=ML1498060466&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”New York Yankees” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png”][/teammatchup] | 6:10 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” secondfullname=”Miami Marlins” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png”][/teammatchup] | 6:40 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” secondfullname=”Miami Marlins” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png”][/teammatchup] | 6:40 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”St. Louis Cardinals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-st-louis-cardinals.png” secondfullname=”Atlanta Braves” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png”][/teammatchup] | 7:15 p.m. | |
|
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
|
||
[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Grent Neiffer’s Yankees vs Guardians Best Bet: Favorable Conditions in Cleveland”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 Home Runs (+500)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” awayname=”New York Yankees” awayslug=”new-york-yankees” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” homename=”Cleveland Guardians” homeslug=”cleveland-guardians” date=”Monday, April 21″ time=”6:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]
Jose Ramirez isn’t in a terrible spot today with a decent matchup and good weather in Cleveland.
Clarke Schmidt has been a slightly above average matchup for lefty power in his career, giving up a 1.17 HR/9 to go along with decent hard contact and fly ball numbers. The weather in Cleveland should also be good for hitting with temperatures around 70 during the game and winds blowing out to right field at 17 mph.
The ball should be flying and Ramirez is a much better hitter than he’s shown this season. He’s coming off a 39 homer season and even with the underlying numbers being down slightly from last season, he’s still likely due for some positive regression.
I have the true odds on Ramirez homering at around +430, which makes this a good EV bet.
Pick: Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 Home Runs (+500)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New York Yankees” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” secondfullname=”Miami Marlins” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” secondfullname=”Miami Marlins” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”St. Louis Cardinals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-st-louis-cardinals.png” secondfullname=”Atlanta Braves” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Charlie Wright’s Reds vs Marlins Best Bet: Fade Lodolo”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Nick Lodolo Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-132)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” awayname=”Cincinnati Reds” awayslug=”cincinnati-reds” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png” homename=”Miami Marlins” homeslug=”miami-marlins” date=”Monday, April 21″ time=”6:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
Nick Lodolo has struggled mightily to generate strikeouts, tallying just 14 over 23 1/3 innings. He seems to have either lost his curveball, or intentionally changed it. The pitch has lost 82 RPMs and nearly three inches of horizontal movement.
Lodolo also dealt with multiple finger injuries in 2024, including a blister and a sprain. He said last season that the injuries affected his feel for the ball, specifically when throwing curveballs.
Lodolo’s SwStr% is a measly 8.7%. His CSW% is down to 24.1%. He’s never had a full season below an 11% SwStr% or a 29% CSW%.
Additionally, Miami has done a nice job against lefties in a limited sample this season. The Marlins are seventh in wRC+ and have the seventh-lowest K%. The lineup they rolled out against lefty Jesus Luzardo on Sunday had just a 21.4% K% since the start of 2024. Luzardo managed seven strikeouts, but it took him seven innings.
Lodolo hasn’t yet topped 90 pitches, so it’s hard to see him going seven innings.
Pick: Nick Lodolo Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-132)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New York Yankees” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” secondfullname=”Miami Marlins” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” secondfullname=”Miami Marlins” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”St. Louis Cardinals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-st-louis-cardinals.png” secondfullname=”Atlanta Braves” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Grant Neiffer’s Reds vs Marlins Best Bet: Can Cruz Stay Hot?”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Home Runs (+575)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” awayname=”Cincinnati Reds” awayslug=”cincinnati-reds” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png” homename=”Miami Marlins” homeslug=”miami-marlins” date=”Monday, April 21″ time=”6:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]
By Grant Neiffer
Elly De La Cruz is off to a fantastic start this season with five homers through 22 games. His underlying numbers have also been drastically better than in the past as he’s posted a barrel rate near 20% and an increased hard-contact rate.
We don’t have a huge sample size of opposing pitcher Max Meyer in the majors, but he’s been a great matchup for homers, giving up 1.97 HR/9 through 87 career innings. While he’s due for some pretty large HR/FB regression, Meyer still grades out as an above-average matchup for home-run power.
The ballpark is a downgrade for De La Cruz, but we are getting great odds on him. I have the true odds just under +500, making this a great bet.
Pick: Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Home Runs (+575)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New York Yankees” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” secondfullname=”Miami Marlins” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” secondfullname=”Miami Marlins” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”St. Louis Cardinals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-st-louis-cardinals.png” secondfullname=”Atlanta Braves” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Grant Neiffer’s Cardinals vs Braves Best Bet: Olson Due For Positive Regression”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Matt Olson Over 0.5 Home Runs (+420)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-st-louis-cardinals.png” awayname=”St. Louis Cardinals” awayslug=”st.-louis-cardinals” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” homename=”Atlanta Braves” homeslug=”atlanta-braves” date=”Monday, April 21″ time=”7:15 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
Matt Olson is in a solid spot, but isn’t priced like it.
He’s off to a mediocre start with three homers through 21 games, but the underlying numbers — an 18.2% barrel rate and a hard-contact rate near 40% — are fantastic. He’s due for some massive positive regression, and this matchup could be when it starts.
The weather in Atlanta is good. Temperatures should be in the mid-80s with good humidity during the game. Opposing pitcher Erick Fedde has been a plus matchup for lefty power over the course of his career (1.37 HR/9) and still grades out as an above-average matchup for lefty power.
I have the true odds here around +350, making this a great bet.
Pick: Matt Olson Over 0.5 Home Runs (+420)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New York Yankees” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” secondfullname=”Miami Marlins” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” secondfullname=”Miami Marlins” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”St. Louis Cardinals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-st-louis-cardinals.png” secondfullname=”Atlanta Braves” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png”][/teammatchup] |
_InlineAdBlock
[procard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/736824_ActionPRO_promo_1500x844.jpg” cta=”Premium picks, tools & analysis” firstupsell=”Track & follow smart money” secondupsell=”Biggest player prop edges” thirdupsell=”Real-time expert pick alerts” buttontext=”SAVE 66% NOW!” buttonurl=”/pricing”][/procard]