The Arizona Diamondbacks (14-9) host the Tampa Bay Rays (9-14) on Wednesday, April 23. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Dbacks.TV and FanDuel Sports Sun.
Find my Rays vs Diamondbacks prediction for the first five innings (F5) below.
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- Rays vs Diamondbacks pick: F5 Under 4.5 (+102) | Play to -115
My Rays vs Diamondbacks best bet is First Five Innings Under 4.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
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Rays vs Diamondbacks Odds
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Rays vs Diamondbacks Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Taj Bradley (TB) | Stat | LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 5.24/3.70 | ERA /xERA | 4.09/2.88 |
| 4.10/3.78 | FIP / xFIP | 2.39/2.46 |
| 1.39 | WHIP | 1.36 |
| 2.4% | K-BB% | 4.83% |
| 40% | GB% | 41% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 79 | Location+ | 109 |
Ducey’s Rays vs Diamondbacks Betting Preview, Predictions
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Rays Betting Preview: Bradley Still Adjusting” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tb.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/tampa-bay-rays” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]
Taj Bradley is still finding his way in the big leagues at 24 years of age, and while many highly-touted pitchers take years to figure it out, there aren’t a whole lot of positives thus far.
Bradley’s strikeout rate has been trending in the opposite direction of what he’d want, beginning at 28% in his rookie year and falling all the way to 25.3% in the early goings of 2025.
That’s not encouraging when you consider Bradley pitches to a large complement of fly balls and walks batters just over the league average — and this season, he’s had particular issues there with a 10.5% walk rate.
The good news is that Bradley is at least pitching to some friendlier contact in the air, bringing his hard-hit rate down to 38.3% with a much-friendlier .375 Expected Slugging than what we’ve seen in the past.
The unfortunate part is his Expected Batting Average is up 10 points to .241, but generally speaking, avoiding damage is what we want to see.
[subheader sizedown=”true” center=”false” text=”Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Offense Shining Bright?” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/976480_dbacks.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/arizona-diamondbacks” link1follow=“false”][/subheader]
Eduardo Rodriguez is very much back. His 4.09 ERA doesn’t glisten, but his 30.2% strikeout rate through four starts sure does, and he’s married that with a wonderful .222 xBA and low 6.3% walk rate.
The lefty has been putting away his opponents in unconventional ways, getting whiffs on his variety of fastballs ranging from the sinker to the cutter. Meanwhile, his four-seamer and change have been hit well, but the expected numbers have looked great beneath the surface.
This Diamondbacks’ offense continues to look complete, striking out in just 19.3% of plate appearances next to a 11.1% walk rate to grade out as the most disciplined team in baseball.
It’s put up a whopping .195 Isolated Power on top of all that and is hitting .251, so perhaps Arizona’s sporadic bursts from past years were a sign of things to come rather than a flash in the pan.
Rays vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Diamondbacks have met their biggest challenge against fly-ball pitchers this year, ranking 10th in OPS, as opposed to first in the reverse split.
Their mark of .740 is 149 points lower than their performance against ground-ballers, so while there’s not much to hate about this offense, this would be the one spot to fade it.
Bradley probably won’t bring his strikeout numbers back up, but he’s been inducing plenty of fly balls, which will help this trend work in his favor on Wednesday.
On the other side of the coin, Tampa Bay has struggled to a 16th-ranked 88 wRC+ against lefties this year despite hitting well overall, and its 23.9% strikeout rate has been a huge detractor.
These two arms should lead the charge towards an under.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (+102)
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Moneyline
I don’t have a play on the ML.
Run Line (Spread)
I don’t have a play on the total.
Over/Under
I’m playing the under on the first five innings.
Rays vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends
[bettingtrends title=”” gameid=”252938″ date=”20250423″][/bettingtrends]
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Rays vs Diamondbacks Weather” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”252938″ date=”20250423″][/gameforecast]