Action PRO home run projections nailed its biggest payout of the bunch last night with Isaac Paredes (+850). Let’s run it back for MLB Saturday.
Today, we’re using our home run models to tap into three more games and picks.
Saturday’s top home run selections using our data feature hitters in Blue Jays vs. Orioles, Braves vs. Rays and Rangers vs. Mariners. Below, we’ll analyze picks from PRO Projections priced at +480, +850 and +1000.
MLB Home Run Odds, Picks, Predictions for 4/12
Home Run Pick for Saturday: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
It isn’t the first time projections have flagged Guerrero Jr., and it likely won’t be the last.
Last year, Guerrero Jr. was a hot commodity for projections. This year the Blue Jays star doesn’t have a home run, but he’s certainly due.
Guerrero Jr. is priced +850 at bet365 to go deep against the Orioles today. Our fair evaluation for Guerrero is 0.18 homers, which means bettors can secure a +5.9% edge just by betting the Jays cog for a round-tripper today.
It’s the top pick from PRO Projections for Saturday.
Home Run Pick for Saturday: Brandon Lowe
Lowe’s a great bet at +480 for Braves vs. Rays.
Tampa Bay’s star infielder ranks great in just about every StatCast metric this season, including Barrel and Hard-Hit percentage, Launch Angle and more. PRO Projections submitted an average of 0.23 homers for Lowe in Saturday’s matchup, equating to a fair price closer to ~+334.
Home Run Pick for Saturday: Josh Jung
Don’t sleep on Josh Jung of the Rangers.
He’s recently returned from an injury amid a powerful Rangers lineup. Tonight, Jung and the Rangers draw the Mariners in a pitcher-friendly park.
Jung is +1000 to hit a home run at BetMGM, but we aren’t so sure that’s an overprice.
PRO Projections tab Jung for 0.14 tonight, or a fair home run price closer to about +615.
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