MLB Home Run Picks: PRO Projections Best Bets for 4/11

Home run projections are updated and ready to go for MLB Friday.

Below, we’re covering three data-driven picks to hit a home run from our advanced MLB betting models. Factoring in odds is key, as our projections and probabilities differ from the market on several picks for 4/11.

Friday’s best predictions are priced +650, +750 and +850. Across the selections feature two household names, and an under-the-radar gem who has yet to homer – but may be due tonight.

Check out three home run picks our PRO MLB projections flagged with oodles of value Friday.

MLB Home Run Picks: PRO Projections Best Bets for 4/11

Home Run Pick for Friday: Isaac Paredes

Isaac Paredes doesn’t have a home run yet in his first season with the Astros, but his time is coming soon. After starting out 3-for-23 at the plate, the former Rays third baseman is 8-for-24.

He’s +850 at BetMGM to hit a home run, which is a great bet according to our models, which project Paredes for 0.17. The Crawford Boxes in left field are calling Paredes’ name, sooner or later.

Home Run Pick for Friday: Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies needs no introduction in the home run market; his purpose is to hit the ever-living you-know-what out of the baseball, evident by already bashing six this season.

Tonight, Schwarber’s +650 (bet365) to homer is simply a mispricing. Our projections (0.19) register a fair price closer to about +425.

Home Run Pick for Friday: Freddie Freeman

In the late window, Dodgers veteran first baseman Freddie Freeman is the pick to click at +750 (bet365). Our models indicate a +3.9% edge, with an estimation of 0.17 homers against the Cubs on Friday.