Pirates vs Reds Prediction, Pick, Odds for Friday, April 11

The Cincinnati Reds host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday, April 11. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.

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Pirates vs Reds odds have the Reds as -166 moneyline favorites and Pirates as +140 road underdogs. The game total is 8 (-118o / -102u). The Reds are +124 to cover the run line (-1.5) and the Pirates are -148 to cover the spread (+1.5).

Below, you can find my Pirates vs Reds prediction for Friday night.

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• Pirates vs Reds picks: Reds Moneyline (-150) | Play to -160

My Pirates vs Reds best bet is the Reds ML (-150). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

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Pirates vs Reds Odds

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Kenny Ducey’s Pirates vs Reds Preview

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The Pirates may have one of the worst offenses in baseball right now, but their pitching has helped them win three of their last four games. It’ll be Bailey Falter’s turn through the rotation, which always raises many questions.

Falter owned an innocent enough 4.43 ERA and 4.81 xERA as a back-end starter a season ago. Still, his numbers must improve as he continues transitioning into a contact-first pitcher. The lefty watched his hard-hit rate reach a career high at 41.3% last year — around five points worse than average — and his .267 xBA and .450 xSLG were well worse than average as well.

Falter induced plenty of fly balls to go along with those figures, and that’s what makes it something of a marvel that he was able to escape with a reasonable xERA. Limiting walks certainly helps bring that number down, and so far, he’s done that to an extreme degree in 2025, with just one in 10 innings to go along with nine strikeouts.

Pittsburgh will hope that Falter can navigate this one a bit easier than his last two starts, where he’s allowed a combined nine runs on 14 hits — including two home runs. His 3.44 xERA thus far paints a rather glowing picture of him, but hopefully, I’ve one enough to cast a shadow over it.

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Brady Singer was a pretty cool story for the Kansas City Royals a year ago, finally seeming to deliver on his potential with a solid 3.71 ERA across a career-high 179 2/3 innings. The former first-round pick found success rolling up ground balls in front of one of the league’s best defenses, helping him pitch well beneath his 4.65 xERA. It wasn’t luck; it was simply a well-executed strategy.

Well, now Singer is in Cincinnati, where he inherited a defense ranked 23rd in Outs Above Average a season ago. So, what has he done? He’s become a wildly different pitcher—at least through two starts—pitching to fly balls and racking up a tasty 30.6% strikeout rate, which is over eight points better than his 2024 mark.

The irony is that the Reds have actually started off the season ranked top-five in OAA, and Singer theoretically should be avoiding the gopher balls inside his hitter-friendly home stadium. If you really want irony, he struggled in his most recent start on the road in Milwaukee and spun seven scoreless innings with just one hit against him in his home debut.

Pirates vs Reds Prediction, Betting Analysis

As we approach this one, the Pirates and Reds sit in the bottom two of the league in wRC+, and each team has begun with a 25% strikeout rate. The Pirates have been buoyed by walks but have failed to impact the ball as much as Cincinnati, which boasts an Isolated Power that is 20 points better.

This will be crucial as we get set to watch both pitchers hunt down flyouts. The Reds pack a better punch at the plate and will also work against the far weaker of the two arms. Yes, Falter would appear to be fine given his xERA, but you have to remember that xERA weighs walks. I don’t really care about walks here. The Reds swing the bat a ton and have proven capable of hitting for enough power to make life difficult on Falter.

I’m not sure what to make of Singer’s early heel turn, but I do know he was a very smart pitcher a season ago. Whether or not this is just a small-sample anomaly is still up for debate, but so far, this approach is clearly working. I expect him to limit Pittsburgh to very little.

Pick: Reds ML (-150)

Moneyline

We’ve tracked some sharp money hitting the Reds, though they actually opened slightly higher than this number by the consensus odds.

Run Line (Spread)

The Reds are just 0-3 to the run line as favorites this season, but Pittsburgh is 2-5 on the road.

Over/Under

Cincinnati has gone 6-7 to the Over this season and 3-3 at home.

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