Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday, April 9.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my Wednesday MLB predictions and picks.
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-08-at-11.50.26%E2%80%AFPM.png” buttontext=”+561 Wednesday MLB Parlay” buttonlink=”https://sharpside.com/books/betmgm/passthrough?deeplinkId[0]=ML1455875108&deeplinkId[1]=ML1455943359&deeplinkId[2]=ML1455957604&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author’s formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections 4/9
[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
Marlins vs. Mets
[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mia_n.png” awayname=”Marlins” awayslug=”miami-marlins” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nym.png” homename=”Mets” homeslug=”new-york-mets” date=”Wednesday, Apr 9″ time=”1:10 p.m. ET” network=”SNY” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+1.5″ col1awayline=”-120″ col1hometext=”-1.5″ col1homeline=”+100″ col2awaytext=”7″ col2hometext=”7″ col2awayline=”-122o / 102u” col2homeline=”-122o / 102u” col3awaytext=”+190″ col3hometext=”-230″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”DraftKings” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/603379_Primary.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gamematchup]
Max Meyer (MIA) vs. Tylor Megill (NYM)
The Mets and Marlins both have off-days on Thursday before resuming their respective schedules on Friday, so I’d expect to see regular lineups for Wednesday’s 1:10 p.m. ET tilt.
[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/04/Phillies-vs-Braves.jpg” linktext=”Phillies vs Braves Predictions, Picks, Odds for Wednesday, April 9″ link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/philadelphia-phillies-vs-atlanta-braves-predictions-picks-odds-wednesday-april-9-qs”][/relatedarticle]
Both Tylor Megill (2.87 xERA, 2.92 botERA, 120 Stuff+, 118 Pitching+) and Max Meyer (3.70 xERA, 3.18 botERA, 103 Stuff+, 113 Pitching+) have looked electric in each of their first two starts of 2025.
Meyer — the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft — finally looks healthy after missing the entirety of the 2022 and 2023 seasons due to Tommy John surgery.
Meyer was actively rehabbing in the majors last season (57 IP, 4.74 xERA, 10.9% K-BB%, 88 Stuff+, 95 Pitching+, 4.71 botERA). Still, the velocity is up across his entire arsenal this year, the movement profile on those pitchers has improved, and he is showing much better command, including his 13 innings in spring (11 K, 1 BB).
Meyer relies heavily on his slider (106 Stuff+, 49% usage rate in 2025); OOPSY (which incorporates more pitch modeling data) puts his rest-of-season FIP projection at 3.97, compared to a range of 4.07 to 4.56 across the remainder of the projection market.
OOPSY also has the most optimistic projection for Megill (3.92 FIP), who has four elite pitches, per Stuff+ (127 four-seamer, 117 slider, 112 sinker, 110 curveball). He also modified his arsenal, throwing his slider more (27.7% vs. 13.2% last season) and exchanging his cutter (13.6% in 2024) and splitter (7.3% in 2024) for more sinkers (19.5% usage rate through two starts vs. 9.8% last season).
Conditions won’t be as pitcher friendly at Citi Field as Tuesday (43 degrees at first pitch, 33 real feel with a nine mph cross breeze), but I still set the total at 6.56 runs for this matinee; bet Under 7 to -108.
Pick: Under 7 (bet to -108)
[procard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/736824_ActionPRO_promo_1500x844.jpg” cta=”Premium picks, tools & analysis” firstupsell=”Track & follow smart money” secondupsell=”Biggest player prop edges” thirdupsell=”Real-time expert pick alerts” buttontext=”SAVE 66% NOW!” buttonurl=”/pricing”][/procard]
[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
Rangers vs. Cubs
[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/666193_rangers.png” awayname=”Rangers” awayslug=”texas-rangers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/chc.png” homename=”Cubs” homeslug=”chicago-cubs” date=”Wednesday, Apr 9″ time=”2:20 p.m. ET” network=”MARQ” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+1.5″ col1awayline=”-145″ col1hometext=”-1.5″ col1homeline=”+122″ col2awaytext=”7.5″ col2hometext=”7.5″ col2awayline=”-115o / -105u” col2homeline=”-115o / -105u” col3awaytext=”+148″ col3hometext=”-175″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”Caesars” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/463646_Caesars.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars”][/gamematchup]
Tyler Mahle (TEX) vs. Shota Imanaga (CHC)
Like the Mets and Marlins, the Cubs and Rangers both have an off-day on Thursday before resuming their schedules on Friday, and I wouldn’t expect any of those teams to sit stars on Wednesday afternoon.
The Cubs will search for a series sweep behind Shota Imanaga (career 45.8% fly-ball rate, 1.31 HR/9), who could struggle with wind gusts blowing out 11-12 mph to left field. But with rain in the forecast and 42 degree temperatures at first pitch (with a real feel of 32), the park should play pitcher friendly, though less so than it was projected to in recent days.
Imanaga (3.12 xERA, 108 Stuff+, 117 Pitching+, 2.34 botERA) both rates and projects as a superior pitcher to Tyler Mahle (5.79 xERA, 3.58 botERA, 92 Stuff+, 105 Pitching+), who is making just his fifth regular-season start since recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Mahle made it back to the majors in August of last season, and his velocity in 2025 is up 1.3 mph relative to last season, closer to his career average (93.2 mph).
Still, he might struggle with command from one outing to the next; velocity typically returns before command as pitchers heal from UCL injuries.
As Mahle (projected FIP range of 4.06 to 4.54) continues to get more starts in 2025, he could pitch to a similar projection as Imanaga (projected FIP range of 3.79 to 3.90) in the second half, but the right-hander is highly reliant on proper pitch sequencing without a true out-pitch in his arsenal (all pitches below 100 Stuff+).
The Cubs have been the best “Over” team in the majors in 2025, but I set Wednesday’s total at 7.42 runs; bet Under 8 to -108.
If Corey Seager happens to sit during a day game for the Rangers (as he sometimes does), bet Chicago on the moneyline to -165 (assuming its regular lineup is in place).
Pick: Under 8.5 (bet to 8, -108)
_InlineAdBlock
[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
Angels vs. Rays
[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” awayname=”Angels” awayslug=”los-angeles-angels” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tb.png” homename=”Rays” homeslug=”tampa-bay-rays” date=”Wednesday, Apr 9″ time=”7:05 p.m. ET” network=”FDSSUN” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+1.5″ col1awayline=”-170″ col1hometext=”-1.5″ col1homeline=”+143″ col2awaytext=”8″ col2hometext=”8″ col2awayline=”100o / -120u” col2homeline=”100o / -120u” col3awaytext=”+122″ col3hometext=”-145″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”Caesars” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/463646_Caesars.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars”][/gamematchup]
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) vs. Ryan Pepiot (TB)
At FanGraphs, Michael Rosen noted how Steinbrenner Field might potentially overtake Wrigley Field as the most wind-impacted park in the majors. This is due to a variety of factors, including high-average wind speeds and a lack of structural shielding on all sides (no second deck, outfield seats, or large buildings in the surrounding skyline).
As the author noted about the below video, “Aranda’s fly ball left the bat at 99 mph with a 37 degree launch angle. Since 2020, there have been 1,173 balls hit with exit velocities between 98 and 100 mph and launch angles between 36 and 38 degrees. Only one traveled a shorter distance than Aranda’s,” who lost 60 feet of fly-ball distance compared to an average batted ball at this trajectory:
Based upon wind patterns, the park should typically favor hitters (with the wind blowing out) in the afternoon, and lean toward pitchers (with the wind blowing in) in the evening.
However, that is not the case on Wednesday night with 74 degree first-pitch temperatures and 7-9 mph winds blowing out to right field.
I’m generally high on both Ryan Pepiot (110 Pitching+) and Yusei Kikuchi (109 Pitching+), but both pitchers have homer issues (career 1.27 HR/9 for Pepiot and 1.58 for Kikuchi), which the conditions could exacerbate.
Kikuchi is throwing his slider at a career-high 40% clip (24.8% career). But the velocity is down across his entire arsenal (one tick on the fastball, and closer to two on the slider, curve, and changeup), and his Stuff+ rating has fallen from 103 to 98 year over year.
Pepiot has moved away from his four-seamer (33% usage rate, down from 50.9% career) in favor of additional secondary pitches, doubling his cutter usage from 6% to 13.9%. The cutter (86 Stuff+) doesn’t grade out well; I’m curious if Pepiot continues to use it as he tries to figure out a weapon to combat left-handed hitters (13.6% K-BB%, vs. 20% vs. righties).
I set Wednesday’s total at 8.5 runs; bet Over 8 to -108.
Additionally, bet the Angels‘ moneyline at +125 or better.
Pick: Over 7.5 (bet to 8, -108) | Angels Moneyline (bet to +125)
[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]
Phillies vs. Braves
[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/phi.png” awayname=”Phillies” awayslug=”philadelphia-phillies” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” homename=”Braves” homeslug=”atlanta-braves” date=”Wednesday, Apr 9″ time=”7:15 p.m. ET” network=”NBCS-PH+” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+1.5″ col1awayline=”-185″ col1hometext=”-1.5″ col1homeline=”+154″ col2awaytext=”8.5″ col2hometext=”8.5″ col2awayline=”-122o / 102u” col2homeline=”-122o / 102u” col3awaytext=”+110″ col3hometext=”-130″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”DraftKings” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/603379_Primary.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gamematchup]
Taijuan Walker (PHI) vs. Grant Holmes (ATL)
Despite cruising through six shutout innings in his first start of 2025, pitch modeling metrics suggest that Taijuan Walker (93 Stuff+, 5.54 botERA) is essentially the same pitcher as last season (84 Stuff+, 5.21 botERA), when he posted a 7.10 ERA, 7.09 xERA, and 6.94 FIP across 83 innings.
Walker used a new pitch mix in his first start, throwing his cutter (21.6% usage, 96 Stuff+) more frequently than any other pitch. Still, neither OOPSY (projected 4.96 FIP) nor any other projection system (projected range of 4.78 to 5.14) buys Walker as anything better than a replacement-level arm.
Grant Holmes (projected FIP range of 3.79 to 4.23) projects closer to a league-average pitcher, posting a 3.46 xERA, 3.20 xFIP, and 4.30 botERA in 68 innings last season. He has three above-average secondary offerings (104 Stuff+ on his slider, 106 on the curveball, 104 on the changeup), and likely throws his fastball (career 37.8% usage, 79 Stuff+) too frequently.
If Atlanta can stay healthy and make the postseason, Holmes should transition well to a multi-inning relief role, with his elite slider.
Until Ronald Acuna Jr. returns for the Braves, the Phillies have the better offense (projected 115 vs. 111 wRC+ vs. righties). Still, I give Atlanta the pitching advantage throughout this contest, and preferred its bullpen by seven spots in my preseason rankings.
Bet the Braves to -133 in the first half or first five innings (F5) and -130 for the full game, compared to projections of -147 and -139, respectively.
Pick: Braves F5 Moneyline (bet to -133) | Braves Moneyline (bet to -130)
Sean Zerillo’s MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, April 8
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Angels/Rays, Over 7.5 (-115, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to 8, -108)
- Astros/Mariners, Over 7.5 (+100, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -105)
- Athletics F5 (-118, 0.25u) at BetMGM (small to -126)
- Athletics (+102, 0.25u) at BetRivers (small to -118)
- Atlanta Braves F5 (-130, 0.25u) at DraftKings (small to -135)
- Atlanta Braves (-115, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to -130)
- Blue Jays / Red Sox, Under 8.5 (-115, Risk 0.5u) at ESPNBet (flat to 8, -108)
- Brewers/Rockies, Over 10.5 (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -107)
- Los Angeles Angels (+125, 0.25u) at ESPNBet (small to +125)
- Marlins/Mets, Under 7 (+102, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -108)
- New York Yankees F5 (-132, 0.25u) at FanDuel (small to -137)
- Padres/Athletics, Under 10 (-105, 0.25u) at Caesars (small to 9.5, -106)
- Rangers/Cubs, Under 8.5 (-115, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 8, -105)
- Toronto Blue Jays F5 (+105, 0.25u) at BallyBet (split with full game to +102)
- Toronto Blue Jays F5 (+112, 0.25u) at BallyBet (split with F5 to +108)
- Twins/Royals, Over 7.5 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 8, -105)
- White Sox / Guardians, Under 7.5 (-112, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -115)