It’s a busy Sunday in baseball with 16 games on the slate, which means I have some MLB home run props and picks.
I’m targeting three AL West sluggers today as I like the value on Yordan Alvarez against the Twins, Brent Rooker against the Rockies and Mike Trout against the Guardians.
Note: While a parlay of these home run picks isn’t our formal recommendation, we’ve put together an easy way to parlay them below via BetMGM.
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-06-at-9.32.10%E2%80%AFAM.png” buttontext=”+10137 Sunday MLB Home Run Parlay!” buttonlink=”https://sharpside.com/books/betmgm/passthrough?deeplinkId[0]=ML1445529880&deeplinkId[1]=ML1445595153&deeplinkId[2]=ML1445557126&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
MLB Home Run Props, Sunday Picks
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 2:10 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Houston Astros” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” text=”Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+300)”][/teammatchup] |
| 3:10 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Oakland Athletics” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” text=”Brent Rooker Home Run (+425)”][/teammatchup] |
| 4:07 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” text=”Mike Trout Home Run (+400)”][/teammatchup] |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Astros vs. Twins Home Run Prop Pick” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” awayname=”Houston Astros” awayslug=”houston-astros” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mind.png” homename=”Minnesota Twins” homeslug=”minnesota-twins” date=”Sunday, April 6″ time=”2:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+300)” subtext=”Home Run (+300)” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
Twins starter Chris Paddack isn’t a terrible pitcher, but he struggles heavily with the long ball, sitting at 1.48 HR/9 in his career — and he’s been worse in recent years.
He’s a great matchup for power, and the weather is only slightly below average for hitting.
I have the true odds for a Yordan Alvarez home run at +270, making this a good EV bet.
Pick: Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+300)
[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Athletics vs. Rockies Home Run Pick” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” awayname=”Oakland Athletics” awayslug=”oakland-athletics” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png” homename=”Colorado Rockies” homeslug=”colorado-rockies” date=”Sunday, April 6″ time=”3:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Brent Rooker Home Run (+425)” subtext=”Home Run (+425)” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/betmgm” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
At this point, I’m likely just going to keep hammering Brent Rooker to hit a home run every game until the books figure it out.
Rooker may hit 50 HRs after hitting 39 last season despite playing in one of the worst hitting parks in the league.
It’s a little cold at Coors Field today, but it still grades out as an above-average ballpark for HRs — even at this temperature.
Rockies top prospect Chase Dollander is making his first start, and while he may be a good pitcher at some point in his career, there’s a decent chance he has the jitters — he grades out as an above-average matchup for righty power.
I have the true odds well under +400, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Brent Rooker Home Run (+425)
[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Guardians vs. Angels Home Run Pick” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” awayname=”Cleveland Guardians” awayslug=”cleveland-guardians” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” homename=”Los Angeles Angels” homeslug=”los-angeles-angels” date=”Sunday, April 6″ time=”4:07 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Mike Trout Home Run (+400)” subtext=”Home Run (+400)” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/betmgm” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
The matchup isn’t a great one overall vs. Luis Ortiz, who has been great at suppressing power to righties, but Mike Trout is more than good enough to make up for it.
Trout comes into this game playing well, with a homer in each of the last three games.
Obviously I don’t expect him to continue at this current pace, but the chances are far better than the odds would suggest.
Trout has been one of the best HR hitters in the league when healthy, averaging around 50 HRs per 162 games since 2018. If he stays healthy, he may be in the running for MVP.
He should not be priced this highly.