I entered Friday with a 4-1 mark on strikeout props this week. Jeffrey Springs unfortunately didn’t give us much of a chance to go 5-0, but it has still been a strong start to the season.
I’ll be adding props to this file as I make the picks throughout the day, and be sure to follow me in the Action App for notifications on those picks.
For now, we’re onto Friday.
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[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Max Meyer Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-113)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mia.png” awayname=”Marlina” awayslug=”miami-marlins” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” homename=”Braves” homeslug=”atlanta-braves” date=”Friday, April 4″ time=”7:15 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
There was a lot to like in Max Meyer’s first start as he struck out seven over 5 2/3 innings, and my model had him at 6.4 expected strikeouts — so, the strong performance was no fluke.
His slider was diabolical, generating a 50% whiff rate, and he leaned on it heavily as his most-used pitch (~40%). He also threw his sinker more than usual, and both his four-seam and sinker velocity were up nearly 2 mph. So, I’d expect those pitches to generate more whiffs than they did in the opener as he settles in.
Now, sinkers usually hurt K%, but it’s not as simple here. Meyer was likely using it to get ahead in counts or induce early contact. That mattered against the Pirates, who have the lowest swing rate in MLB, which Meyer capitalized on with an unusually high called-strike rate.
Normally, I’d call that luck, but the Braves are a perfect follow-up opponent. They’re also one of the most passive teams early in counts, especially when it comes to the first pitch. However, they also chase more than the Pirates once they’re behind in the count.
That’ll create an ideal environment for Meyer as he can get ahead, then turn to his slider and other secondaries to finish off hitters.
He also showed an ability to live on the edges in that first outing, a huge step forward and something I’ll be watching closely. That kind of command boost, paired with the improved velocity and sequencing, could unlock a higher ceiling moving forward.
Lastly, Meyer actually posts a higher K% vs. LHB, making him a bit of a reverse-split arm. The Braves are sending out five lefties today, which subtly raises Meyer’s strikeout ceiling compared to the typical righty.
All signs point to Meyer being the real deal. I think this should be priced around -150.
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[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Max Fried Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyy.png” awayname=”Yankees” awayslug=”new-york-yankees” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” homename=”Pirates” homeslug=”pittsburgh-pirates” date=”Friday, April 4″ time=”4:12 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
Max Fried is technically a buy-low candidate in my model since he had just four strikeouts in his Yankees debut, but I had him projected for closer to 6.1 in that start.
That said, it was a softer matchup against the Brewers, and Fried benefited from a few extra called strikes. That’s not something he can reliably bank on over the long haul since it’s a stat that tends to be pretty luck-driven game to game. Fried isn’t one of the few arms that can consistently manipulate it.
Milwaukee also threw a higher percentage of left-handed bats at him than he typically sees, which helped boost his strikeout upside a bit.
One thing that stood out was Fried’s increased sinker usage, which was 24% in that start compared to just 16% last season. That’s the kind of pitch mix change that can quietly drag down his K%, especially if he continues trending in that direction.
Fried generally needs opposing hitters to chase in order to pile up strikeouts. But the Pirates have chased at a league-low 25% rate to start the year, which likely explains why I’m showing value on his under here.
Pittsburgh is also sending eight right-handed bats to the plate today, which further lowers his expected K% due to the platoon disadvantage.
I still expect his strikeout numbers to rebound in the long run. My rest-of-season K% projection is aggressive, and I’ve got him throwing closer to 97 pitches today, but this isn’t the spot to buy in.
I’m projecting him to stay under 5.5 Ks closer to -140 and with the under sitting at plus money, this is a bet I’m happy to make.
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Jack Flaherty Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-112)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cws.png” awayname=”White Sox” awayslug=”chicago-white-sox” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/det.png” homename=”Tigers” homeslug=”detroit-tigers” date=”Friday, April 4″ time=”1:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
Jack Flaherty had a brutal Opening Day assignment against a Dodgers team that’s on pace for the first 162-0 season in MLB history. He held his own, allowing just two runs over 5 2/3 innings with five strikeouts on 83 pitches.
My model had him projected at 6.2 Ks in that start, and I expect his pitch count to tick back up closer to his usual 95-pitch range. So, in a vacuum, Flaherty was sort of a “buy low” candidate for me before I even ran today’s sim.
However, I think the market is just a tad too high here.
Flaherty struggled to generate chases against the Dodgers, posting just a 21% chase rate, and I think part of that stemmed from his inability to consistently work the edges — only 36% of his pitches were located on the edge.
I do expect him to settle in and return to his usual K% as the season goes on. In fact, my rest-of-season K% projection for him is more optimistic than many other models I’ve seen.
This isn’t the ideal spot for Flaherty to get going, though. The White Sox have actually been a bit tougher to strike out to start the year. They’re around league average in most plate discipline metrics but above average in whiff rate (lower is better), and they’ve been slightly below average in chase rate but above average in chase contact.
Flaherty’s bread and butter is generating a high whiff rate when he gets hitters to chase off the plate. Unless he sharpens up his edge command, though, he won’t be able to get the White Sox to chase as much, which neutralizes his main strength.
It’s also going to be cold, with temps in the high 40s to low 50s. While cold weather can boost strikeouts in general, I think it could work against Flaherty a bit, especially if the chill affects his grip and contributes to the same edge issues he had in his first start.
If he finds that command today, Flaherty could absolutely go over. He’s still a buy-low pitcher for me over the long haul. But my projections are already bullish on Flaherty’s underlying stuff, and I’m still showing value on the under here.
I project this closer to -150, and I think the market is underestimating how tough this version of the White Sox lineup might be to fan (compared to last year).
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