The Villanova Wildcats take on the USC Trojans in the College Basketball Crown. Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
Villanova is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -250. The total is set at 150.5 points.
Here are my Villanova vs. USC predictions and college basketball picks for April 3, 2025.
Villanova vs USC Prediction
My Pick: Villanova -5.5
My Villanova vs USC best bet is on the Wildcats spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Villanova vs USC Odds
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- Villanova vs USC spread: Villanova -5.5
- Villanova vs USC over/under: 150.5 points
- Villanova vs USC moneyline: Villanova -250, USC +205
- Villanova vs USC best bet: Villanova -5.5
Spread
I’ll back the Wildcats as two-possession favorites.
Moneyline
I’m passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I’m passing on the over/under.
My Pick: Villanova -5.5
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Villanova vs USC College Basketball Betting Preview
I’ve been reasonably impressed with USC’s offense in the latter half of the season. The Trojans are excellent in downhill dribble creation and have finished well at the rim.
But Villanova’s constant under-screening and rim-denial on defense won’t allow USC to waltz to the rim (as it did against Tulane on Tuesday). You must beat the Wildcats’ compact defensive scheme by shooting over the top.
Typically, I’d say the Trojans can do that. They don’t generate many catch-and-shoot opportunities, but they’re super efficient when they do (1.11 PPP, 87th percentile) and shot nearly 38% from deep in conference play.
However, their two best 3-point shooters aren’t playing in the Crown. Wesley Yates III and Chibuzo Agbo shot over 40% from deep on nearly 10 attempts per game.
I seriously doubt USC’s ability to generate offense without those two. The Wildcats will likely swarm Saint Thomas and Desmond Claude in dribble penetration.
I don’t love how Villanova runs its half-court offense, but the Trojans’ defense is filled with holes.
USC’s dribble defense is terrible (.84 PPP allowed, 22nd percentile), and the Trojans are an average 3-point denial defense (39% 3-point rate allowed, 169th nationally).
Plus, Eric Dixon should have no issues creating in the post against USC’s undersized front that doesn’t grade out well in post-up defense (.88 PPP allowed, 38th percentile).
Ultimately, I don’t trust USC’s shooters or offense in this matchup.
I don’t entirely trust Villanova’s half-court offense, but the Wildcats looked pretty good en route to 85 points against Colorado on Tuesday, so I’ll take my chances.
Favorites have done well in the Crown, going 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS.
I’ll lay the points with another.