We have three NBA player props for this Saturday, and our staff of basketball betting experts is focused on some key players who could be in line for noteworthy performances in today’s contests.
Read below for our NBA player prop picks for Saturday, April 5.
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NBA Player Props for Saturday, April 5
- Jalen Brunson Over 21.5 Points (-120)
- Ja Morant Under 26.5 Points (-130)
- James Harden Over 21.5 Points (-125)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Jalen Brunson Over 21.5 Points (-120)” subtext=”Knicks vs Hawks, 3:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/new-york-knicks-updated-logo-2023.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/new-york-knicks” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
By Nick Galaida
If Jalen Brunson suits up on Saturday, it seems unlikely that he sees fewer than 30 minutes. It seems more likely that he sees close to a normal workload and then is given the day off on Sunday, with New York on the latter half of a back-to-back set.
This season, Brunson has scored 22+ points in 43 of his 61 games played, including 23 of 30 road contests. Even in games when he’s played 30 minutes or fewer, Brunson has gone over this number in 5 of 10 instances, including 2 of 4 road games.
This is a favorable matchup for Brunson, facing an Atlanta team that ranks 23rd in defensive rating and 2nd in pace since the All-Star break. Assuming roughly 30 minutes of playing time, he should have enough chances to get the job done.
Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 21.5 Points (-120)
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Ja Morant Under 26.5 Points (-130)” subtext=”Grizzlies vs Pistons, 7:00 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mem.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/memphis-grizzlies” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
By Nick Galaida
Ja Morant enters play on Saturday having scored 30+ points in consecutive games, but he could be hard-pressed to keep that streak alive against the Pistons.
Since the All-Star break, Morant has attempted the overwhelming majority of his 2-point field goals in the restricted area or the paint. During that time period, Detroit’s defense has allowed the 4th-lowest success rate on shots in the restricted area and the 5th-lowest success rate on shots in the paint.
It’s also worth noting that Morant shot 8 for 15 from deep across his last 2 games, an outlier for a player who is averaging only 1.6 made 3-pointers per game this season and and only 1.3 made 3-pointers per game in his career. Assuming some regression to the mean from beyond the arc, the math clearly favors the under.
This season, Morant has scored 26 points or fewer in 32 of 42 games in which he’s made 3 shots from deep or fewer, and he has done so in 30 of 36 games in which he’s made 2 or fewer 3-pointers.
Pick: Ja Morant Under 26.5 Points (-130)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”James Harden Over 21.5 Points (-125)” subtext=”Mavericks vs Clippers, 10:30 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/los-angeles-clippers-logo-updated-2023.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/odds/los-angeles-clippers” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
By Kyle Murray
While it does sound like there is at least a chance Kawhi Leonard plays both games of a back-to-back for the first time this year, I still think he’s highly questionable for the Clippers tonight.
This is a good matchup regardless for James Harden, as it is a pace-up spot, and the Mavericks are allowing the 11th-most points per 100 possessions to their opponents.
Pick: James Harden Over 21.5 Points (-125)
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