I thrived yesterday with my starting pitcher breakdowns, especially with my favorite prop pick of the day on Logan Gilbert.
We’re back at it today. I’ll be adding pitcher previews throughout the day and will start with a pick on Jack Leiter, who starts the first game of the day at 12:40 p.m. ET.
[quickslipbasic bookname=”FanDuel” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/53766_FanDuel@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/04/Screen-Shot-2025-04-02-at-8.40.23-AM.png” buttontext=”Tail Koerner on Leiter’s Ks Over” buttonlink=”https://sharpside.com/books/fanduel/passthrough?deeplinkId[0]=ML1430591352&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/666193_rangers.png” awayname=”Rangers” awayslug=”texas-rangers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cin.png” homename=”Reds” homeslug=”cincinnati-reds” date=”Wednesday, April 2″ time=”12:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Jack Leiter Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-113)” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
Jack Leiter might be a sneaky long-shot bet for American League Rookie of the Year at +4000 (FanDuel), but I’m more of a day trader than a long-term investor so I’m treating him as a BUY right now coming off his season debut.
Leiter only struck out four Red Sox in five innings in his 2025 debut, but my model had him closer to 5.3 expected Ks. That’s a sign that his stuff played better than the box score indicates.
One of the most notable changes was 29% sinker usage, which significantly cut into his four-seamer usage (from 51% last year down to 34% in his debut). Usually, throwing more sinkers leads to more contact, but Leiter’s was different. It carried a 28% whiff rate, which is legit. For a guy who’s going to throw a fastball 50% of the time, I like the idea of mixing in two distinct versions.
Behind that, the right-hander got a slider, curveball and kick changeup to help put hitters away. None of those pitches generated strikeouts in his first start, but the profile suggests that Leiter will rack up Ks moving forward.
The issue against Boston was that the Red Sox simply had a good day. They swung at strikes and laid off stuff outside the zone, which neutralized Leiter’s approach. The Reds, though, are a different story. They’ve taken strikes at one of the highest rates so far and have struggled to make contact on pitches out of the zone. That’s exactly the kind of lineup that should feed into Leiter’s pitch mix and give him a few more free strikes to work with than Boston.
The only real concern here is Leiter’s pitch count. I’ve got him capped around 85 pitches, especially with the bullpen fresh after Eovaldi’s complete-game masterpiece that would’ve made Leonardo da Vinci jealous. (Shoutout to Eovaldi, who I wrote up as a “BUY!” yesterday.)
Still, even with a workload of facing about 20 batters, I’m showing fair price closer to -150 on Leiter to go over 4.5 Ks.
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[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/chc.png” awayname=”Cubs” awayslug=”chicago-cubs” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oak.png” homename=”Athletics” homeslug=”oakland-athletics” date=”Wednesday, April 2″ time=”3:35 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Jeffrey Springs Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oak.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
Jeffrey Springs was filthy in his season debut, striking out nine over six innings, and it was no fluke. My expected Ks model had him at 7.5. He doesn’t overpower anyone (fastball under 90), but his elite pitch mix keeps hitters off-balance. His changeup is a nasty put-away pitch with a 44% whiff rate last year and an absurd 64% whiff rate in his first start.
Springs thrives by getting whiffs both in the zone and on pitches out of the zone. That combo gives him a high floor even when he’s not perfect. He did struggle a bit getting ahead early last time out, but this matchup helps:
- The Cubs whiff at an above-average rate on pitches in the zone
- They also chase and whiff at higher-than-average rates overall
- They swing at first pitches aggressively, which matters since Springs struggled to get the first pitch over as much as he’d like in his season debut
The Cubs are rolling out 7 righties today against the lefty Springs, which seems smart on paper but is actually a boost for him. He’s got a reverse split, striking out RHBs at a 6% higher clip.
Add in cooler temperatures, a pitcher-friendly umpire (Ramon de Jesus) and the fact that Luis Severino threw 107 pitches last night. Springs only threw 83 in his debut, but if he gets a longer leash now on his new team (against the Rays, who capped him) then we could see a ceiling game.
I project this closer to -130 to clear 5.5 strikeouts, so getting +115 is 🔥.
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” awayname=”Tigers” awayslug=”detroit-tigers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sea.png” homename=”Mariners” homeslug=”seattle-mariners” date=”Wednesday, Apr 2″ time=”4:10 p.m. ET” network=”FDSDET” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+120)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/draftkings” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Skubal’s season debut was rough — 2 strikeouts and 4 home runs allowed over 5 innings. But don’t panic.
His expected Ks were around 3.9 — not great, but better than the raw result — and the Dodgers just weren’t chasing. They made contact in the zone and only chased 20% of the time. Sometimes, it’s just bad timing. (And with Verdansk dropping tomorrow, let’s just say his CoD timing was off. If you know, you know.)
No red flags showed up in his stuff or velocity, so I’m expecting a bounce-back here — and this is the perfect spot for it.
Why I’m Buying Low on Skubal:
- Seattle chases and whiffs at high rates
- Skubal has reverse splits – 8% higher K rate vs. righties, and the Mariners are rolling out 8 RHB today
- T-Mobile Park is one of the top K-boosting parks by park factor
- Home plate ump Scott Barry has a wider strike zone
This is a great “buy-low” opportunity on a legit Cy Young contender. The market may be scared off by his rough opener, but that just means we get a sneaky plus-money number.
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