The Yankees are the talk of the league as they continue to bash baseballs with their new torpedo bats.
Our home run projections are live for MLB Wednesday and are all over the Yankees vs. Diamondbacks game – with a bit of a twist.
Tonight, our projections love a home run hitter at the current price. However, advanced MLB models also flagged a hitter to avoid, and to bet to not hit a home run.
Check out a +875 prop pick in Yankees vs. D-backs today, and another surprising home run bet to add to the bet slip for Wednesday.
MLB Home Run Picks Wednesday: Diamondbacks vs. Yankees Props and Picks
Home Run Pick for Diamondbacks vs. Yankees: Bet Against Aaron Judge
Perhaps the best part of our projection system is the capability to factor in price to bet unders, too.
Yankees star Aaron Judge is the hottest commodity in the home run market — so much so that he’s overvalued.
For instance, Judge is +190 across the market to hit a home run vs. the Diamondbacks.
PRO Projections, however, forecast 0.28 homers for Judge today, or a fair price of about +255.
Therefore, taking under 0.5 homers (-235 best odds at BetMGM) actually produces an edge in our database.
PRO Projections Pick: Aaron Judge No HR (-235)
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Home Run Pick for Diamondbacks vs. Yankees: Bet Josh Naylor
Diamondbacks’ Josh Naylor was a projection favorite yesterday at +600. Naturally, he popped up again PRO Projections top home run picks for today.
Naylor is +875 at MGM as the top price. Our forecast remains optimistic, grading Naylor for 0.16 homers and a +4.5% edge. Today’s still a great draw for Naylor playing in a park with a short porch in right field, which plays to his strength as a hard-hitting lefty.
PRO Projections Edge: Josh Naylor Lewis HR (+875)
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