Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and picks for Thursday, April 3.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my Thursday MLB predictions and picks.
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MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Thursday, April 3
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Boston Red Sox” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bos.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Colorado Rockies” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png” secondfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/phi.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Houston Astros” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” secondfullname=”Minnesota Twins” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/min.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”New York Yankees” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyy.png”][/teammatchup] |
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Red Sox vs. Orioles
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Tanner Houck (BOS) vs. Charlie Morton (BAL)
Tanner Houck and Charlie Morton will take the ball for the second time this season after each permitted four runs in their March 28 outings (at Texas and Toronto, respectively).
Houck (4.11 xERA, 3.58 xFIP, 14.3% K-BB%, 106 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+, 3.52 botERA in 2024) is just 28 years old; he is in his third season as a full-time starter after tossing a career-high 178 2/3 innings last season.
Pitching models love his arsenal, which has four offerings above 100 Stuff+ (108 sinker, 117 slider, 106 splitter, 101 four-seamer), but Houck struggled with command in the second half of 2024 (23.5% K-BB% in the first half; 15.8% in the second half as his xFIP increased from 3.16 to 4.37).
In a limited sample this season, across four spring starts and his first regular-season outing, Houck has walked eight hitters against just nine strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings. I’m concerned that he’s dealing with an underlying injury after blowing through his previous career high in innings by 72 frames.
The 41-year-old Morton modified his plan of attack in his first start with the Orioles — using his curveball just 29% of the time (42-43% the past two seasons) while mixing in more sinkers (15%) and four-seam fastballs (40%, up from 25.9% career).
The curve (120 Stuff+) is his bread and butter, but Morton needs to find a way to set it up. The sinker (104 Stuff+) grades out as his second-best pitch, but unfortunately, it doesn’t tunnel with his curve nearly as well as the four-seamer would.
Underlying metrics suggest that Morton has been a below-average pitcher for the past two seasons. His K-BB% dipped from 19.5% to 14% and 14.6%, and his xERA floated up from 4.08 to 4.64 and 4.49 since 2022.
While Houck (projected FIP range of 3.74 to 4.19) gives Boston a clear starting pitching edge over Baltimore (projected FIP range of 4.23 to 4.63 for Morton), I prefer the Orioles’ bullpen, which I rate as a top-five unit in MLB, compared to the Red Sox, who I’d rank closer to tenth.
Gunnar Henderson should return to the Orioles lineup, giving Baltimore the offensive advantage (projected 122 vs. 111 wrC+ vs. righties). I rate their lineup as the superior group both defensively and on the basepaths, too.
Bet the Orioles moneyline to -107 (projected -117), assuming that Henderson will bat atop their lineup for the first time this season.
Additionally, I projected the total at 9.82 runs, with warm temperatures (74 degrees at first pitch) for early April, 15-16 mph winds blowing out to center field, and hitter-friendly umpire Edwin Moscoso behind the dish. Bet the Over to 9.5 (-103),
Moscoso’s historical record to the Over/Under doesn’t influence my rating for his influence on the total. Still, he has been a drastic Over umpire (80-47-7, 62.9%, +21% ROI) in a five-year sample (11-9-2 last season).
Picks: Orioles Moneyline (bet to -107) | Over 9 (bet to 9.5, -103)
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Rockies vs. Phillies
[gamematchup league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png” awayname=”Rockies” awayslug=”colorado-rockies” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/phi.png” homename=”Phillies” homeslug=”philadelphia-phillies” date=”Thursday, Apr 3″ time=”1:05 p.m. ET” network=”COLR” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+1.5″ col1awayline=”-110″ col1hometext=”-1.5″ col1homeline=”-110″ col2awaytext=”9.5″ col2hometext=”9.5″ col2awayline=”-110o / -110u” col2homeline=”-110o / -110u” col3awaytext=”+180″ col3hometext=”-220″ col3awayline=”” col3homeline=”” bookname=”bet365″ bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/240081_Bet365ALT.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gamematchup]
Antonio Senzatela (COL) vs. Taijuan Walker (PHI)
Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia will also feature excellent hitting conditions (71 degrees at first pitch, 14-16 mph winds blowing out to right center) and bad starting pitchers on Thursday.
Edit: My updated total after lineups and latest weather is for 10.33 runs; bet an Over 9.5 to -122 or Over 10 to -10.
Antonio Senzatela posted a 23.17 xERA in his first start of the season. Still, he didn’t allow the Rays to score a single run, despite permitting nine hits and 14 hard-hit balls, per Statcast, without recording a single strikeout.
Antonio Senzatela is the first pitcher to allow 9+ hits and record 0 strikeouts but still allow 0 runs since Dave Dravecky on June 25, 1986.
— nugget chef (@jayhaykid) March 29, 2025
Senzatela’s contract has to be the worst in MLB, and considering the value he will produce over its duration, it is arguably one of the worst in league history. The Rockies — a team that doesn’t spend money — signed him to a 5-year, $50 million contract in October of 2021, a year in which he posted a 5.24 xERA and a 7.5% K-BB%.
He’s missed time since with a torn ACL, and then Tommy John surgery limited him to five starts over the past two seasons. Still, since signing that extension, Senzatela has continued to perform as a replacement-level arm (4.38 xFIP, 4.76 SIERA, 5.8% K-BB%). Stuff models like his slider (101 Stuff+) and curveball (106).
At his best, Senzatela keeps the ball on the ground (50.5% career ground-ball rate) avoids barrels (90th percentile in 2022) and limits walks (83rd percentile), but his Location+ metrics have fallen since returning from injury as command is typically the first thing to go and last thing to return for pitchers following a UCL injury.
I’m surprised that Taijuan Walker (7.10 ERA, 7.09 xERA, 5.5% K-BB%) wasn’t run out of town in Philadelphia last season despite showing career-worst indicators and pitch-modeling metrics (84 Stuff+, down from 98 in 2022).
Walker has lost more than two ticks of fastball velocity in two seasons (three in three years), and his profile has wholly imploded, from that of a league-average starter (3.94 xERA, 3.88 xFIP in 2022) to a FIP projection range between 4.83 and 5.34 for 2025.
Projections prefer Senzatela (projected FIP range of 4.39 to 5.10), and he fits nicely with a Rockies defense that projects as an above-average unit.
I projected Colorado around +165 (37.7% implied) in this matchup. I would consider betting their moneyline above +180 (35.7% implied), but I would prefer to wait for the market to get closer to +200 before firing on the underdog.
Pick: Rockies Moneyline (Wait for +200) | Over 9.5 (bet to -122 or 10, -103)
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Astros vs. Twins
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Hunter Brown (HOU) vs. Joe Ryan (MIN)
Conditions in Minneapolis will look quite a bit different than the East Coast on Thursday, with rain and snow in the forecast and temperatures expected in the low 40s at first pitch.
I set the total at 6.86 runs between the Astros and Twins, but we don’t have umpire information for this series. Still, bet the Under to 7 at even money, and I’ll adjust the price target (or recommend a pass) once an umpire is assigned.
Cooler temperatures should help Joe Ryan limit the long ball; Ryan rates with the upper echelon of pitchers in terms of xERA (2.87 in 2024), K-BB% (21.8% career) and pitch-modeling metrics (112 Pitching+, 2.80 botERA last season).
Still, Ryan is a fly-ball pitcher with a career 1.42 HR/9 rate, and he’s drastically underperformed his xERA throughout his career, including by nearly an entire run in each of the past two seasons (ERAs since 2021: 3.60, 4.51, 3.55, 4.05; xERAs since 2021: 2.87, 3.53, 3.57, 3.01).
However, Ryan has been able to limit the long ball in March/April (0.95 HR/9) and May (0.63 HR/99), when it’s typically cooler, before struggling with warm temperatures in June (2.04 HR/9,) July (2.04 HR/9), and August (2.16 HR/9).
Additionally, he has performed better at home (1.28 HR/9) than on the road (1.57 HR/9). And behind him, Minnesota also has the No. 1 ranked bullpen in my model and comes into Thursday well-rested.
Hunter Brown was one of the best pitchers in baseball after the first month of last season, generating a 2.51 ERA over his final 147 innings while ranking third in AL pitching WAR (2.1) in the second half.
Brown started throwing a sinker (25% after June 1), and his entire arsenal, which features six pitches with a Stuff+ figure of 106 or higher, took off.
Brown’s velocity is up this season (from 96 mph to 97.8 mph), and his pitch-modeling metrics have improved (122 Stuff+, 2.95 botERA, from 104 and 4.21 last season).
Among currently healthy starters, I view Brown as at least a top-10 if not a potential top-five pitcher in the AL (I’d put Tarik Skubal, Logan Gilbert, Jacob deGrom, and Garrett Crochet in the top four, then it drops a tier to Brown, Cole Ragans, Pablo Lopez, etc.),
But while I don’t typically trust the Astros’ bullpen (aside from their top two relievers), they used up their back-end depth on Wednesday in their series sweep loss against the Giants.
Pick: Under 7.5 (bet to 7, +100)
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Diamondbacks vs. Yankees
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Merrill Kellly (ARI) vs. Carlos Carrasco (NYY)
I bet the under on Wednesday in the Bronx, with temperatures at 44 degrees at first pitch and 10-12 mph winds blowing in from the short porch in right field.
I’m betting the Over on Thursday, with temperatures at 61 degrees and winds blowing 8-10 mph out to left field, compared to a projected total of 9.93 runs. Bet the Over 9.5 to -108.
The Yankees will start Carlos Carrasco, who blew up in garbage time relief behind Max Fried against the Brewers (2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 2 K).
Carrasco didn’t surpass 61 pitches in spring, and he’s been a replacement-level starter for the past two seasons: 6.77 xERA, 6.7% K-BB%, 75 Pitching+ in 2023 and 4.71 xERA, 12.5% K-BB%, 85 Pitching+ in 2024.
Merrill Kelly dipped into similar territory last season (4.94 ERA, 14.7% K-BB%, 92 Pitching+), but projections still view him as a functional No. 4 starter (projected FIP range of 4.26 to 4.85).
Both of these offenses see a lot of pitches and walk a ton (top five in walk rate both in 2024 and in a limited 2025 sample), which can wear down opposing starters and get into their opponent’s bullpens.
Arizona may look to avoid using AJ Puk, who has worked on consecutive days, and their long-relief man, Bryce Jarvis (5.52 xERA in 2023, 5.42 in 2024, career 4.94 xFIP), could struggle if Kelly can’t make it through the fifth inning.
Conversely, the Yankees used their long reliever, Yoendrys Gomez, for three innings on Wednesday, and may need to leave Carrasco out longer than they’d like (80-90 pitches) so that their ‘pen isn’t taxed for a weekend series in Pittsburgh.
Pick: Over 9.5 (bet to -108)
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Sean Zerillo’s MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, April 3
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- Astros/Twins, Under 7.5 (-111, 0.5u) at Fanatics (bet to -119 or 7, +100)
- Baltimore Orioles (-102, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -108)
- Diamondbacks/Yankees, Over 9.5 (-104, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -108)
- Red Sox / Orioles, Over 9 (-106, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 9.5, -103)
- Rockies / Phillies, Over 9.5 (-118, 0.25u) at BallyBet (bet to -122 or 10, -103)