The MLB card started early Monday, but we’re just getting started with home run picks for tonight.
After letting the afternoon slate pass, I’ve been waiting for PRO home run projections to update to get a clear view of tonight’s best picks. I’ve got two from our advanced database that I’ll be betting on. For reference, odds on Monday’s home run picks individually are priced +560 and +800.
Today’s mix of picks includes hitters that continue to pop up as great bets from PRO Projections to hit a home run at odds listed.
Here are three home run predictions I’ll be personally betting tonight, using premium MLB PRO Props data.
MLB Home Run Picks: Projections Best Bets for 3/31
Tonight’s picks are in the Tigers vs. Mariners (9:40 p.m.) and Braves vs. Dodgers (10:10 p.m.) games.
Here’s a brief reasoning for all of them:
- Proven potential (this hitter has at least 30+ homers in multiple seasons)
- High flier (our models like an under-the-radar player much more than the market)
Both bets are at FanDuel.
Home Run Pick for Monday: Justyn-Henry Malloy
Justyn-Henry Malloy gets the start atop the Tigers order tonight.
The 25-year-old utility man, who debuted last year, is +800 to homer vs. the Mariners. The implied odds give Malloy about an 11% chance.
Our models are a bit higher, at 0.17 homers tonight. Given the quantity of at-bats in the leadoff spot, and the price we get at a pitcher-friendly park like Seattle, it’s worth a stab according to our numbers.
Home Run Pick for Monday: Matt Olson
Braves slugger Matt Olson is +560 vs. the Dodgers to launch one over the fence. Our projection for the smooth-swinging lefty is 0.22 homers, and a fair price closer to +355 – good for the best edge (+4.6%) of the night.
Olson homered 54 times in 2023, and added 39 to his ledger last season. It’s only a matter of time until he’s on the board.