No pun intended, but Opening Day was a hit for PRO MLB home run projections.
Shohei Ohtani (+450), PRO’s top pick, went deep. So, too, did Cedric Mullins (+700), and a bunch of others our advanced MLB systems flagged throughout the day.
I’ll be personally monitoring home run edges from projections all season; Friday was frankly a dud for home run picks. However, scanning MLB odds Saturday, we’re back in business.
A bunch of hitters made the cut Saturday as great bets to hit a home run.
Here’s what our data reveals for today’s best bets, complete with a projections board below detailing all the biggest edges.
Best Home Run Bets for March 29
Our PRO Projections system integrates a unique blend of proprietary player data, betting odds, and diverse elements to identify optimal picks. As a guideline, if you’re placing a bet solely on PRO Projections, aim for an edge of at least 3.5%. Anything above this threshold is strong, while picks falling just below might require additional consideration or personal input.
We also highlight players who are reliable bets to not hit a home run!
Meanwhile, these players were flagged as good bets today.
Home Run Pick for Saturday: Ryan Mountcastle
Projections like Orioles slugger Ryan Mountcastle vs. the Blue Jays. Baltimore’s offense has a bunch of pop, and Mountcastle’s the pick to click. Odds for a homer are +750 at FanDuel. Our fair price today is more like +426.
Home Run Pick for Saturday: Joey Bart
LoanDepot Park in Miami can suppress homers, but one-hitter projections like in Pirates vs. Marlins are catcher Joey Bart at +700. With another fair price of +426, it’s a 4.9% edge over the market on Bart to park one.
Home Run Pick for Saturday: Yordan Alvarez
If you’re going more of a chalk route, look out for Houston’s Yordan Alvarez. He’s priced +320 to homer today, but our fair calculation is more like +202
PRO Projections Best Home Run Picks for 3/29*
| Player | Best Odds | PRO HR | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles) | +750 | 0.19 | +5.5% |
| Josh Bell (Nationals) | +750 | 0.19 | +5.5% |
| Joey Bart (Pirates) | +700 | 0.19 | +4.9% |
| Jorge Soler (Angels) | +450 | 0.26 | +4.7% |
| Isaac Paredes (Astros) | +625 | 0.20 | +4.3% |
| Yordan Alvarez (Astros) | +320 | 0.33 | +4.3% |
| Heliot Ramos (Giants) | +450 | 0.25 | +3.9% |
*PRO Projections updated frequently. Check out our data-driven MLB Props!