MLB Opening Day has arrived, and our baseball betting experts are all over it with six MLB best bets for Thursday, March 27.
Our Opening Day picks include MLB player props for Zack Wheeler, Clay Holmes and Sean Burke, plus three moneyline predictions for Pirates vs. Marlins, Tigers vs. Dodgers and Athletics vs. Mariners.
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MLB Best Bets. Predictions, Moneyline Picks
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| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#5″ firstfullname=”Detroit Tigers” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” secondfullname=”Miami Marlins” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png”][/teammatchup] | 7:10 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#6″ firstfullname=”Athletics” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oak.png” secondfullname=”Seattle Mariners” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sea.png”][/teammatchup] | 10:10 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” secondfullname=”Washington Nationals” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png”][/teammatchup] | 4:05 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”New York Mets” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” secondfullname=”Houston Astros” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png”][/teammatchup] | 4:10 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” secondfullname=”Miami Marlins” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png”][/teammatchup] | 4:10 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” secondfullname=”Chicago White Sox” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cws.png”][/teammatchup] | 4:10 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Charlie Wright’s Phillies vs Nationals Best Bet: Wheeler Strikeouts”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Zack Wheeler Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” awayname=”Philadelphia Phillies” awayslug=”los-angeles-dodgers” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png” homename=”Washington Nationals” homeslug=”chicago-cubs” date=”Thursday, March 27″ time=”4:05 p.m. ET” network=”MASN” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Charlie Wright
The Nationals had one of the toughest lineups to strike out last season, and they could be even better in that regard this season.
Washington finished with the eighth-lowest K% against right-handed pitchers last season. Over the final two months of the year, the Nats were down to the fourth-lowest strikeout rate.
They’ve moved on from high-strikeout bats, like Lane Thomas and Joey Gallo, and replaced them with good contact options, including Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell. Paul DeJong stands out as a whiff-heavy addition, but the surrounding lineup should make up for his shortcomings.
Zack Wheeler maxed out at 75 pitches and five innings in Spring Training. That will likely be the extent of his leash in his season debut.
Wheeler exceeded 10 K/9 last season for the first time since 2021, but projection systems have him falling back below that mark. He should be good for a strikeout per inning, but anything beyond that is unlikely.
Pick: Zack Wheeler Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140; DraftKings)
[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/03/TarikSkubal-Tigers-MLB.jpg” linktext=”Tigers vs Dodgers Prediction, Pick, Odds for Thursday, March 27″ link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/detroit-tigers-vs-los-angeles-dodgers-prediction-pick-odds-thursday-march-27-qs”][/relatedarticle]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Brit Devine’s Mets vs Astros Best Bet: Holmes Strikeouts”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Clay Holmes Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-165)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” awayname=”New York Mets” awayslug=”new-york-mets” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” homename=”Houston Astros” homeslug=”houston-astros” date=”Thursday, March 27″ time=”4:10 p.m. ET” network=”SNY” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
By Brit Devine
Holmes’ transition into a starter role got off to a great start in Spring Training. He topped out at 88 pitches in his last start and struck out 23 batters in 19 1/3 innings.
The Astros project to be a low strikeout team, but Holmes has more than enough ability to clear such a low hurdle with him being as stretched out as any starter entering Opening Day.
Holmes added a new “kick change” to his repertoire and had good results, making him even more effective, in theory, with a larger arsenal than when he was a reliever.
There is some juice on this bet, but with Holmes looking great this seems like a reasonable number to bet the over even against a low strikeout team.
Pick: Clay Holmes Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-165)
Editor’s Note: This number has ticked up to 4.5 as of Thursday morning.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Brit Devine’s Pirates vs Marlins Best Bet”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Pirates Moneyline (-154)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” awayname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” awayslug=”pittsburgh-pirates” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png” homename=”Miami Marlins” homeslug=”miami-marlins” date=”Thursday, March 27″ time=”4:10 p.m. ET” network=”FanDuel Florida” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]
By Brit Devine
There won’t be many times this season that I will be on the Pirates as -150ish favorites, but Opening Day lines up well for them.
Paul Skenes looks fully stretched out, hitting 85 pitches on March 17 in Spring Training, while his counterpart, Sandy Alcantara, topped out at 57 pitches and is unlikely to go too deep into the game.
Alcantara had a great Spring Training, but with him unlikely to go beyond five innings, the Pirates should have the opportunity to beat up on a bad Marlins bullpen later in the game.
On offense, the Pirates have some actual MLB-level bats, while the Marlins might have only one MLB-caliber hitter in leadoff man Xavier Edwards with Connor Norby hitting the IL.
The Pirates’ bullpen isn’t great, but it should still be better than the Marlins’, who should compete for one of the worst bullpens in MLB this season.
With advantages in all three main phases of the game, I’m backing the Pirates to give the Marlins the first of many Ls this season.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline (-154)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Brit Devine’s Angels vs. White Sox Best Bet: Sean Burke Strikeouts”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Sean Burke Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” awayname=”Angels” awayslug=”los-angeles-angels” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cws.png” homename=”White Sox” homeslug=”chicago-white-sox” date=”Thursday, Mar 27″ time=”4:10 p.m. ET” network=”CHSN” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/128508_Primary1.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Brit Devine
Burke is stretched out after 87 pitches in his last spring outing, and while he wasn’t lighting the world on fire with Ks in the spring, he was at 10.42 K/9 last season and went for 5+ K’s in all three starts last year.
The Angels lineup has plenty of high strikeout bats and should be mostly right-handed on Opening Day. Burke had a 38.5% K% against right-handed bats in limited MLB work last year and has a good track record of being a high strikeout pitcher in the minors.
Going to ladder this up as well.
Pick: Sean Burke Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120); Ladder: 6+ Strikeouts (+200; FanDuel), 7+ (+420; FanDuel)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Kyle Murray’s Tigers vs Dodgers Moneyline Bet”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Tigers Moneyline (+130)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” awayname=”Detroit Tigers” awayslug=”detroit-tigers” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” homename=”Los Angeles Dodgers” homeslug=”los-angeles-dodgers” date=”Thursday, March 27″ time=”4:05 p.m. ET” network=”MASN” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Kyle Murray
The Tigers will be without Parker Meadows for this game, which is a huge blow, but they have the Tarik Skubal advantage. I will likely always be interested in this Tigers team at plus money if Skubal is on the bump.
Mookie Betts is battling a strange illness that has him down to 150 pounds. Freddie Freeman also missed both Tokyo Series games, although I expect him to play.
Give me the Tigers in this game with the AL Cy Young winner on the bump.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline (+130)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bruce Marshall’s Athletics vs Mariners Moneyline Bet”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Athletics Moneyline (+150)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” awayname=”Athletics” awayslug=”oakland-athletics” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sea.png” homename=”Mariners” homeslug=”seattle-mariners” date=”Thursday, Mar 27″ time=”10:10 p.m. ET” network=”NBCS-CA” bookname=”BetRivers” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/115895_BetRivers384x96.png” bookreviewslug=”betrivers”][/gameheader]
By Bruce Marshall
The A’s offered a lot of value last season. Until proven otherwise, I’ll continue to look for spots to take them.
Adding Luis Severino at the top of the rotation was a rare ambitious move by the A’s in the marketplace, but he brings stability and the sort of track record manager Mark Kotsay hasn’t had at his disposal in recent years. Though we’re technically not in April yet, it was Severino’s best month last season with the Mets, recording a 1.90 ERA in five starts.
I’ll hold off on jumping on any Logan Gilbert bandwagon for the Mariners, considering Seattle won in only four of his last 14 starts last season, when the M’s stalled down the stretch.
Pick: A’s Moneyline (+150)