PRO Projections and PRO Systems are all over the spread and over/under in a key No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup Thursday in the NCAA Tournament.
As madness ensues with the anticipated opening rounds, one matchup that presents enticing options for bettors features No. 5 Michigan clashing with the No. 12 seed UC San Diego Tritons.
Scheduled to take place on March 20, 2025, at 10 p.m. ET, this game promises not only an intense battle between two talented squads but also savvy, premium selections on the spread and total using our data. PRO Systems identified a key edge on the line, while our over/under looks a lot different than the market.
Under the guidance of head coach Dusty May, Michigan enters the tournament fresh off a Big Ten Tournament victory. Meanwhile, Erin Olen’s UCSD squad has caught the betting world’s attention this season not only as the top team against the spread in the bracket but also as the entire country!
Check out multiple, detailed UCSD vs Michigan predictions and picks for Thursday’s first-round college basketball game.
Michigan vs. UC San Diego Odds
- Michigan vs. UC San Diego spread: Michigan -2.5
- Michigan vs. UC San Diego over/under: 142.5
The 5-vs-12 matchup is arguably the most interesting from a betting perspective in the NCAA Tournament. Is UC San Diego ripe for an upset, or is the public overthinking it?
Scanning similar matchups in the past, UC San Diego is a fit historically for a neat system to cover the spread against Michigan.
The “Slow-Paced Dogs” PRO System finds that in the NCAA Tournament, small underdogs which operate at a slow tempo cover the spread at a great rate. Since tracking, we found that teams averaging 72.2 possessions or fewer per game cover 57% of the time if the spread is +1 to +4.5.
The Tritons average about 66 possessions per game, play great defense and boast an excellent turnover margin; considering they’re within the spread range, it’s a bet on the underdogs, per the model.
[betlabsembed systemid=”1086525″ systemname=”NCAA Tournament Slow Paced Dogs (PRO)” leaguename=”ncaab” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20spread%20is%20between%201%20and%204.5%22%2C%22the%20game%20is%20in%20the%20NCAA%20Tournament%22%2C%22the%20team’s%20pace%20is%20between%200%20and%2072.2%22%2C%22the%20game%20is%20played%20during%20the%20Postseason%20season%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$2,968″ record=”178-137-11″ winpct=”57%”][/betlabsembed]
PRO Systems Pick: UC San Diego Against the Spread
In addition to the spread, the over/under presents another hefty betting edge according to the numbers submitted by our proprietary data.
The aforementioned PRO Systems highlight a slower pace — and so do our PRO Projections, which predict a lower-scoring affair pegged at 139.4 points. This projection significantly differs from the betting market’s set over/under line of 142.5, thus creating a noticeable discrepancy that savvy bettors can exploit in the night window.
PRO Projections Pick: Michigan vs. UC San Diego Under
_InlineAdBlock
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.