The Liberty Flames take on the Oregon Ducks in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 10:10 p.m. ET on truTV.
Oregon is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -298. The total is set at 139.5 points.
Here are my Liberty vs. Oregon predictions and college basketball picks for March 21, 2025.
Liberty vs Oregon Prediction
My Pick: Oregon -6.5 (Play to -8)
My Liberty vs Oregon best bet is on the Ducks spread, with the best odds currently available at FanDuel. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Liberty vs Oregon Odds, Lines
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- Liberty vs Oregon spread: Oregon -6.5
- Liberty vs Oregon over/under: 137.5 points
- Liberty vs Oregon moneyline: Oregon -298, Liberty +240
- Liberty vs Oregon best bet: Oregon -6.5 (Play to -8)
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My Liberty vs Oregon NCAAB Betting Preview
The 12-5 games brought some heat on Thursday.
McNeese State — a smaller team — took Clemson to the woodshed.
Can a similarly vertically challenged team, Liberty, pull off another stunner?
It’ll be challenging for Liberty here. The Flames are among the smallest teams in college basketball, ranking 347th out of 364 teams in average height, per KenPom.
Once Isaiah Ihnen went down, Liberty’s rotation got even smaller. Richie McKay has no players taller than 6-foot-8 forwards, such as Owen Aquino and Zander Yates.
Shooting is the name of the Flames game. They attempt 3s on 47% of their field goals and connect at a 39% clip.
Guards Kaden Metheny and Collin Porter are the two shortest players, standing below 6 feet. That pair makes up for their lack of size offensively by shooting over 40% from deep. Neither creates much separation to score, but the smaller guards have deep range.
Defensively is a different story, though. Kennesaw State guard Adrian Wooley used his size and speed to jolt past the small backcourt in the CUSA Tourney. Oregon guard Jackson Shelstad has electric speed and is three inches taller than Liberty’s guards.
The Flames use their bigs as bigger guards. Zach Cleveland, Liberty’s starting power forward, leads the team in assists, and Aquino can also drop dimes. Liberty doesn’t post up often — just 7% of the time. So, expect a steady diet of cutting, screening, and pick and rolls.
Cutting can be problematic for Oregon, as it allows 1.253 PPP against those actions.
The Flames defense ranks 48th in defensive efficiency and tries forcing teams to one-on-one scoring. Opponents only tally an assist on 39% of makes, the fourth lowest nationally.
I expect Oregon to have a noticeable edge in the size and athleticism department. The most significant edge is with Oregon’s leading scorer, Nate Bittle. The skilled 7-footer averages over 14 points per game and can shoot over the more undersized Liberty bigs in the pick-and-pop game.
One factor that needs to go in Liberty’s direction is pace. The game will shift in the other direction if Liberty can’t keep it to its style.
The Ducks want to push the pace in transition after getting a stop, which will be huge because it won’t allow Liberty to set its defense. Plus, Coach McKay is known for his deliberate style, sitting 287th nationally in adjusted tempo.
The Ducks are terrific at post-ups. That should be the point of emphasis for the legendary Dana Altman. It’s not just Bittle who can exploit the small Flames. Don’t sleep on Brandon Angel, who can use his 6-foot-8 frame to get past Cleveland.
Plus, who doesn’t trust Coach Altman in March Madness? The way Altman changes defenses from his amoeba zone to man can create confusion for opposing offenses.
Oregon has too many different ways to beat Liberty.
The Flames’ only path is shooting the ball well from deep and slowing the game down. Liberty is almost more reliant on perimeter shooting than anyone in this tournament. If it has an off-shooting night, Oregon will beat them by double-digits.
I don’t see them covering even if the shots fall. Oregon has too many weapons for an unathletic Liberty team to hold at bay.
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