The Wisconsin Badgers take on the Michigan State Spartans in the Big Ten Tournament. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET on CBS.
Michigan State is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -142. The total is set at 144.5 points.
Here are my Wisconsin vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks for March 15, 2025.
Wisconsin vs. Michigan State Predictions, Best Bet
- Pick: Wisconsin ML +120
My Michigan State vs. Wisconsin best bet is on the Badgers to win the game outright, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Wisconsin vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread
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My Pick: Wisconsin ML +120
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Wisconsin vs. Michigan State Big Ten Tournament Picks
Wisconsin will likely be a trendy pick to win this game after making 19 of its 32 3s in its quarterfinal win over UCLA.
The Badgers scored 1.30 points per possession in the win, which might seem low for making nearly 20 3s. That’s because Wisconsin went just 11-of-26 from inside the arc.
Which version of Wisconsin will show up? The one that couldn’t stop Penn State for 40 minutes and lost in Madison? The one that scored just 70 points against Northwestern two nights ago? Or the one that looked unbeatable on Friday? We just don’t know which Badgers team will show up night in and night out.
Wisconsin might be streaky, but there’s no denying how well the Badgers are playing. They sit eighth in Bart Torvik‘s rankings since Feb. 1 with the nation’s 12th-most efficient offense and 23rd-most efficient defense.
The latter stat excites me. Wisconsin’s top-30 defense and one of the country’s best offenses give it a chance to win the Big Ten Tournament.
Michigan State can’t shoot the ball from 3. That’s not a new thing; it’s been a lingering issue since the Maui Invitational. The Spartans are connecting on 33% from deep in their past 12 games, up from their overall 29% marker.
So, I oddly have faith in the Badgers defense, as long as it keeps MSU out of transition. Transition defense is a real problem for Wisconsin, as opponents score a strong 1.07 PPP on them in transition, per Synergy.
The rest of Wisconsin’s defensive profile lines up perfectly to contain Michigan State’s mediocre offense. I touched on MSU’s shooting woes, and the Badgers can make scoring inside tough on the Spartans. Opponents shoot just 47% from inside the arc against them.
It’ll be tough for Michigan State to score without an outlier shooting performance — or if they just feast in transition all game.
Wisconsin can obviously get hot from deep. I’d like to see the Badgers dominate in the paint.
Playing a pair of highly-skilled bigs in Nolan Winter and Steven Crowl gives Wisconsin a strong interior advantage. They don’t post up a ton, but Michigan State struggles to contain post-ups, so maybe scoring at the rim could be the key.
The Spartans hold teams to just 27% from deep. That’s the best mark in the country, and Wisconsin shoots 3s on 47% of field-goal attempts. I wouldn’t go as far as to say it’s reliant on 3s, though.
Wisconsin is just a super effective offense in general, shooting 55% from inside the arc and 82% from the foul line.
John Tonje is firmly in the running for a first-team All-American nod. The senior guard scored 26 points in the win over UCLA on 6-of-6 shooting from deep.
Also, I don’t worry about Wisconsin having tired legs from playing an extra game. Only Tonje and John Blackwell played more than 25 minutes since the Badgers crushed UCLA.
It’s strength against strength — Wisconsin is one of the top offensive teams in the sport, and MSU is one of the best defensive teams.
The difference is Michigan State has been outside the top 60 in Torvik’s offensive efficiency since Feb. 1. Wisconsin can slow down MSU’s mediocre scoring unit.
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