Big Ten Tournament Picks, Odds, Bracket: Conference Tournament Preview & Best Bets for 2025

Indianapolis will play host to the largest Big Ten Tournament yet, as 15 teams got the official invite, from 17-3 Michigan State to 7-13 Iowa.

It should be fun. My only complaint is how many games will be streamed on Peacock. Yuck.

Let’s dive into my top Big Ten Tournament picks and college basketball predictions for this year’s conference tourney.

All odds via FanDuel as of Monday, March 10.

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It’s pretty wild to see Michigan at 15-1 despite snagging the third overall seed and the coveted double-bye, but it’s not surprising.

Sure, everyone is scared of the Danny Wolf-Vlad Goldin big-man ball-screen sets, and the Wolverines run a rock-solid rim-and-3-based offense alongside an excellent rim-and-3 denial two-big drop-coverage defense.

But the Wolverines just aren’t that good, folks.

The problem is almost entirely shot-volume related, as the backcourt throws the ball away like crazy, the passive drop-coverage scheme doesn’t force turnovers, and they’re weak on the defensive glass.

Altogether, Michigan finished the conference season with a -131 field-goal attempt differential, last in the Big Ten by nearly 50 shots.

The Wolverines didn’t dominate the Big Ten. Instead, they snuck by with 11 wins by four or fewer points. They finished 14-6 with a negative point differential.

It’s safe to say I don’t trust them in this tournament and will happily fade them at any opportunity.

Michigan State’s two-way rim dominance, stellar two-way rebounding, and Tom Izzo’s elite transition coaching (on offense and defense) give Sparty a high floor, and I like this team more than most.

But I’m scared to back them at these odds, mainly because the defense is overvalued after conference opponents shot just 26% from 3 on high volume (42% 3-point attempt rate, 15th in Big Ten, per KenPom).

UCLA is among the nation’s best half-court defenses because Mick Cronin’s hard-hedging ball-screen coverage overwhelmed opponents at the point of attack. But the Bruins are also a sketchy offense with their midrange reliance.

Plus, they’re a pumpkin outside the Pacific Time Zone, as they won just two of their seven games away from the West Coast.

I love Maryland. The Terps are among the nation’s most dynamic offenses because they have so many ways to create offense, whether through Julian Reese and Derik Queen on the interior, Ja’Kobi Gillespie in ball-screen sets, or Rodney Rice on the wing.

They also run a somewhat bland but highly all-around effective two-big drop-coverage scheme that denies rim-and-3 opportunities.

But I’m hesitant to back them in a neutral-court tournament format because they rank 344th in Haslametrics away-from-home metric after posting a 5-5 record in conference play. They lost to Washington in Seattle.

Since Feb. 1, Purdue ranks dead last nationally in 2-point defense (64%, per Bart Torvik). Cool. The Boilermakers have the country’s best point guard running a dangerous pick-and-roll offense, but they can’t stop a nosebleed off the dribble, and Trey Kaufman-Renn has been a sieve at the rim. No thanks.

I continue to believe that Illinois has the highest ceiling of any team in the conference, as the Kasparas Jakucionis-Tomislav Ivisic pick-and-roll sets are machine-like, and their drop-coverage defense is relatively effective — especially in catch-and-shoot denial.

The Illini were cooked over the past month by injuries and brutal shooting variance — they’ve shot 30% from 3 over the past month, while opponents have shot over 40%.

They’re begging for positive regression, but it hasn’t shown up yet, and their defense has a low floor with how few turnovers they force.

Meanwhile, I’m not overly interested in either Oregon or Indiana. But if I had to pick one, give me the Ducks. Dana Altman tends to overperform in March as he begins to align those Rubik’s Cubes.

They won seven straight to end the regular season, although two came by the skin of their teeth in overtime. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are coached by Mike Woodson, a guy who’s already been canned.

I have negative interest in backing Iowa and Ohio State.

I’ve been low on the Buckeyes since Day 1, as their successes were fueled by unsustainable 3-point shooting splits, and all that negative regression hit during a 2-8 midseason stretch.

They’re dangerous on offense because Bruce Thornton is so good off the dribble, but they don’t have much interior two-way play, as Aaron Bradshaw and Sean Stewart aren’t great at secondary creation or rim protection.

Meanwhile, Iowa’s defense was lifeless all season, and the Hawkeyes will only be worse without Owen Freeman providing some semblance of size in the middle.

They’re dangerous enough on offense to make a run on red-hot 3-point shooting, but they rank 340th nationally in Haslametrics’ away-from-home metric because they shot 33% from deep on the road compared to 40% at home.

I could be talked into Minnesota or Northwestern.

The Gophers are an electric factory behind Dawson Garcia’s unique slashing-and-shooting ability as a 6-foot-11 forward. They won seven games in conference play with upsets over Michigan, UCLA and Oregon.

Meanwhile, I respect Northwestern’s compact paint-denial defense and the booty-ball midrange-and-high-post offense led by Nick Martinelli.

The Wildcats are also the opposite of Michigan in that they don’t turn the ball over and force turnovers, so they lead the league in field goal-attempt differential (+97, per CBB Analytics). Alas, if only Brooks Barnhizer and Jalen Leach were healthy.

If there were a long shot to consider, why not Rutgers?

The Scarlet Knights have a litany of problems, but they also have an elite dribble creator in Dylan Harper and an elite shot creator in Ace Bailey.

They dropped 95 on USC in regulation a few weeks ago behind 39 from their superstar frosh duo, and their road to the semis would include the nation’s worst 2-point defense (Purdue) and the most overvalued team in the tournament (Michigan).

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Give me Wisconsin (7-1) over Maryland in the Big Ten title game.

Yeah, I’m worried about the Max Klesmit injury. But even with the Badgers’ late-season swoon (2-3 to end the season), they still lead the league in Bart Torvik’s adjusted efficiency metric since the calendar flipped to February, and they were the Big Ten’s best road team this season after going 6-3 in conference play.

I adore Wisconsin’s offense. Assistant coach Kirk Penney turned Greg Gard’s attack from a slow-paced, post-heavy plodding one into an elite continuity ball-screen motion with super spacing around the league’s best scoring guard in John Tonje.

Plus, they can still play through Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter in the post or invert the floor, given both can step out and shoot it.

However, Wisconsin’s defense can be beaten.

The Badgers are especially vulnerable against dribble handoff and off-ball screening heavy-motion offenses that will move their bigs around and force them to defend in space.

But they’re also the nation’s best rim-denial defense, clean the boards well and never foul.

I also like their path.

Wisconsin should roll over either Northwestern or Minnesota before playing UCLA in a revenge-game scenario after losing to the Bruins, 85-83, in Los Angeles.

But Cronin’s crew is an entirely different team away from the comfy confines of the West Coast.

Finally, give me the Badgers to pick off Michigan State after they lost in East Lansing two weeks ago.

Wisconsin’s elite rim-denial defense kept Sparty away from the rim (only 16 attempts, per CBB Analytics), and it likely should’ve won that game outright if not for a piss-poor shooting night (5-for-32 from 3, 16%).

Anything can happen in the final, but these odds for my favorite Big Ten offense are too good to pass up.

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