Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction, Pick, Odds for NBA Tonight (March 12)

The Minnesota Timberwolves (37-29) and Denver Nuggets (42-23) face off tonight at 10:00 p.m. ET at Ball Arena in Denver. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.

The Nuggets are 3-point favorites over the Timberwolves on the spread with the over/under set at 233 total points. Denver is a -142 favorite on the moneyline, while Minnesota is a +124 underdog

Will Nikola Jokic put up another dazzling MVP-level performance against their division rival, or will the Wolves defense once again prove to be too much for Denver’s offensive attack? Let’s get into my Timberwolves vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, March 12.

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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction

Spread

I lean toward Wolves +4 in this spot, but I’ll back them in another way.

Moneyline

My bet is on Minnesota to win outright tonight. Shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.

Over/Under

I think the total is just right on the money. I’ll stay away from it.

My Pick: Timberwolves Moneyline (+130)

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds

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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Preview spread: Nuggets -3
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Preview over/under: 233 total points
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Preview moneyline: Nuggets -142, Timberwolves +124

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Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota has had a slight advantage in this matchup recently. The Wolves split with the regular-season matchups with the Nuggets last season before taking eliminating them in the playoffs. Also, Minnesota has won the first two matchups this season between these teams.

If you were in a basketball player lab and built the kind of wings to defend Jamal Murray, you’d wind up with Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Edwards and Nickiel Alexander-Walker. Lithe, quick guards who can get over screens to contest and take away space while also being athletic enough to make multiple rotations.

Rudy Gobert is, at this point, the most able Jokic defender in the league. He still gets cooked by Jokic because everyone does, but Gobert at least acquits himself and even occasionally wins the matchup, which is more than most can say.

Without Aaron Gordon, who is doubtful with calf soreness, the Nuggets have no one to match up with Julius Randle. Peyton Watson is too light, Russell Westbrook is too small, and Zeke Nnaji will likely have the same problem as Watson.

Minnesota is the ninth-best team in forcing turnovers, and turnovers and points off them are Denver’s Achilles heel.

There’s also a letdown effect, as Denver is coming off a two-game set in OKC and playing its third game in four nights.

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Denver Nuggets

Offensively, the Nuggets have better matchups for Anthony Edwards than they used to have. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a great defender, but he struggles with bigger, stronger assignments in isolation. Christian Braun is better at meeting physicality with physicality.

The Wolves aren’t well built to attack Denver in a few aspects. Minnesota isn’t as dominant on the glass this year, and they are only 16th in transition offense.

Nikola Jokic. There’s nothing specific about him; just in general, he’s a matchup advantage.

The Murray component is interesting. He’s playing not just the best basketball of this season but really since the 2023 playoffs. He’s moving better, getting better separation, and hitting tough shots off-balance. If he’s able to get loose, he can break the Wolves’ scheme.

Denver’s second unit is … not terrible? It has been better since moving to more versatile, athletic frontcourt options by simply not being a huge negative that can swing these games.

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I make this Nuggets -2. The Wolves’ matchup advantage is worth at least two points, making this a pick’em, so that leads me to the Wolves moneyline.

The Wolves actually rank in the top 10 in both offense and defense, and you can argue they’re actually better than Denver on the whole, statistically.

I’ll back Minnesota to get the upset.

Best Bet: Timberwolves Moneyline (+142)

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Betting Trends

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