The NBA regular season resumes with a relatively light slate this Thursday, with a total of only 5 matchups on the docket scheduled for today. However, our staff of basketball betting experts still dug into the latest odds and identified all the best value on the board.
Our betting experts have looked over the odds and made NBA picks for all 5 of tonight’s contests. Continue below for our NBA best bets and predictions for Thursday, February 27.
NBA Best Bets, Predictions, Picks, Odds: Thursday, February 27
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| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Golden State Warriors” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/759063_Warriors.png” secondfullname=”Orlando Magic” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/orl.png”][/teammatchup] | 7 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Denver Nuggets” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/725847_nba_den_150x150.png” secondfullname=”Milwaukee Bucks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mil.png”][/teammatchup] | 8 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Charlotte Hornets” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/charlotte-hornets-logo-updated-2023.png” secondfullname=”Dallas Mavericks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/dal.png”][/teammatchup] | 8:30 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”New Orleans Pelicans” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/new-orleans-pelicans-logo-updated-2023.png” secondfullname=”Phoenix Suns” secondlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/875040_Suns.png”][/teammatchup] | 9 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#5″ firstfullname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Lakers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/lal.png”][/teammatchup] | 10:30 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Warriors vs. Magic”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Over 210.5 (-120)” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/759063_Warriors.png” awayname=”Golden State Warriors” awayslug=”golden-state-warriors” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/orl.png” homename=”Orlando Magic” homeslug=”orlando-magic” date=”Thursday, Feb. 27″ time=”7 p.m. ET” network=”NBA League Pass” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
A lot of the model based metrics for these teams are not an adequate reflection of the current rosters and on court product.
The Warriors obviously acquired Jimmy Butler in one of the larger trade deadline transactions this season.
The Magic have recently returned both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, and most of their games were missing these key scorers.
The biggest difference for Paolo and Jimmy being anchors for these offenses now is the ability to get to the FT line often. I expect a high FT rate in this one, which should boost the points scored without the clock going.
I like the Over in this game and have an adjusted number of 216.5. The total will not get that high, but should be good to play up to Over 213.
Pick: Over 210.5 (-120)
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| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Golden State Warriors” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/759063_Warriors.png” secondfullname=”Orlando Magic” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/orl.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Denver Nuggets” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/725847_nba_den_150x150.png” secondfullname=”Milwaukee Bucks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mil.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Charlotte Hornets” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/charlotte-hornets-logo-updated-2023.png” secondfullname=”Dallas Mavericks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/dal.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New Orleans Pelicans” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/new-orleans-pelicans-logo-updated-2023.png” secondfullname=”Phoenix Suns” secondlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/875040_Suns.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#5″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Lakers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/lal.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Nuggets vs. Bucks”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 28.5 Points (-135)” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/725847_nba_den_150x150.png” awayname=”Denver Nuggets” awayslug=”denver-nuggets” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mil.png” homename=”Milwaukee Bucks” homeslug=”milwaukee-bucks” date=”Thursday, Feb. 27″ time=”8 p.m. ET” network=”TNT” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Joe Dellera
The Bucks face off against the Nuggets in a must-watch game on tonight’s NBA slate, and I’m expecting Giannis Antetokounmpo to have a big game.
Denver’s defense is just 18th in the league and they struggle to defend the rim. They allow the sixth-most points in the paint per game, and Nikola Jokic tends to avoid fouling due to the negative impact that has overall for the team.
The Nuggets play at the sixth-fastest Pace in the NBA, and this could be a game that lends itself to more opportunities to score.
Giannis has fine tuned his shot diet to being closer to the basket this season.
He has been on a bit of a minutes restriction. However, at this line and in this matchup, I’m comfortable backing him.
He’s hit this in 4 straight games against Denver when playing between 25 and 35 minutes. Let’s grab Giannis to exceed 28.5 points.
Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 28.5 Points (-135)
[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/02/jamal-murray.jpg” linktext=”Nuggets vs. Bucks Prediction, Odds, Parlay Pick for Thursday, February 27″ link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nuggets-vs-bucks-prediction-odds-parlay-pick-for-thursday-february-27″][/relatedarticle]
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Golden State Warriors” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/759063_Warriors.png” secondfullname=”Orlando Magic” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/orl.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Denver Nuggets” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/725847_nba_den_150x150.png” secondfullname=”Milwaukee Bucks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mil.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Charlotte Hornets” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/charlotte-hornets-logo-updated-2023.png” secondfullname=”Dallas Mavericks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/dal.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New Orleans Pelicans” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/new-orleans-pelicans-logo-updated-2023.png” secondfullname=”Phoenix Suns” secondlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/875040_Suns.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#5″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Lakers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/lal.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Hornets vs. Mavericks”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Mavericks -9 (-110)” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/charlotte-hornets-logo-updated-2023.png” awayname=”Charlotte Hornets” awayslug=”charlotte-hornets” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/dal.png” homename=”Dallas Mavericks” homeslug=”dallas-mavericks” date=”Thursday, Feb. 27″ time=”8:30 p.m. ET” network=”NBA League Pass” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
A single-digit spread in any game involving the Hornets these days is a buy-signal to go against Charlotte, which is on one of the worst three-game skids we can recall.
Charlotte hasn’t come closer than 36 points in any of those losses (53 and 42 points in the others), and not sure about the status of top scorer and lone threat G LaMelo Ball, who missed Tuesday’s 128-82 loss at Golden State with a sore ankle (and reportedly ill as well).
Dallas is shorthanded minus almost its entire frontline but still has Kyrie Irving, who has twice scored 35 in the last three games, and is remaining surprisingly competitive despite the injuries. Lay the points with Dallas.
Pick: Mavericks -9 (-110)
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| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Golden State Warriors” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/759063_Warriors.png” secondfullname=”Orlando Magic” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/orl.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Denver Nuggets” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/725847_nba_den_150x150.png” secondfullname=”Milwaukee Bucks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mil.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Charlotte Hornets” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/charlotte-hornets-logo-updated-2023.png” secondfullname=”Dallas Mavericks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/dal.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New Orleans Pelicans” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/new-orleans-pelicans-logo-updated-2023.png” secondfullname=”Phoenix Suns” secondlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/875040_Suns.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#5″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Lakers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/lal.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Pelicans vs. Suns”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Jose Alvarado Under 16.5 Points + Assists (-112)” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/new-orleans-pelicans-logo-updated-2023.png” awayname=”New Orleans Pelicans” awayslug=”new-orleans-pelicans” homelogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/875040_Suns.png” homename=”Phoenix Suns” homeslug=”phoenix-suns” date=”Thursday, Feb. 27″ time=”9 p.m. ET” network=”NBA League Pass” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
Despite entering the league undrafted, Jose Alvarado worked hard to turn his two-way contract into a multi-year deal with the Pelicans. Alvarado does have more of a bench role, making just 22 career starts in 205 appearances.
Role players, who are often less consistent, tend to perform better at home where they have more of a supportive crowd behind them. Thus, I’m not entirely surprised that the Georgia Tech product averages almost four more points at home (11.6) than when he’s on the road (8.0).
Alvarado has a points + assists prop of 16.5 on Thursday night against the Suns, but that number feels somewhat inflated due to some big performances in the past.
In 10 of the 11 games that he exceeded this projection, Alvarado registered 20 or more points+assists. However, for the season, he has only cleared 16.5 points + assists in 11 of 34 games (32%), and in just 19% of his games on the road (3-of-16).
Moreover, he has failed to surpass this number in nine straight road games. Therefore, the Under offers tremendous value in this spot, and we don’t even have to swallow that much juice, given the odds are -112 at FanDuel.
Pick: Jose Alvarado Under 16.5 Points + Assists (-112)
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| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Golden State Warriors” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/759063_Warriors.png” secondfullname=”Orlando Magic” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/orl.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Denver Nuggets” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/725847_nba_den_150x150.png” secondfullname=”Milwaukee Bucks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mil.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Charlotte Hornets” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/charlotte-hornets-logo-updated-2023.png” secondfullname=”Dallas Mavericks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/dal.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New Orleans Pelicans” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/new-orleans-pelicans-logo-updated-2023.png” secondfullname=”Phoenix Suns” secondlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/875040_Suns.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#5″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Lakers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/lal.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”5″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Timberwolves vs. Lakers”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Lakers -6.5 (-110)” league=”nba” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” awayname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” awayslug=”minnesota-timberwolves” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/lal.png” homename=”Los Angeles Lakers” homeslug=”los-angeles-lakers” date=”Thursday, Feb. 27″ time=”10:30 p.m. ET” network=”NBA TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]
There was already a series pattern between these two this season, as the home side won and covered the first three meetings.
The last two of those were at Target Center, and the Lake Show hardly got contributions from LeBron James, who scored only 10 in the humbling 109-80 loss on December 2 in Minneapolis, and then didn’t play at all in a 97-87 loss to the Wolves just 11 nights later.
Though Minnesota won an overtime thriller at OKC on Sunday, this current stretch of six games vs. top playoff contenders has seen the Wolves lose four of those.
Meanwhile, after a shocking loss to Charlotte, the Luka Doncic version of the Lake Show has won and covered three straight, as Luka becomes increasingly comfortable (he also had 32 in a win over Denver last Saturday). Play Lakers.
Pick: Lakers -6.5 (-110)
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| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Golden State Warriors” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/759063_Warriors.png” secondfullname=”Orlando Magic” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/orl.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Denver Nuggets” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/725847_nba_den_150x150.png” secondfullname=”Milwaukee Bucks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/mil.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Charlotte Hornets” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/charlotte-hornets-logo-updated-2023.png” secondfullname=”Dallas Mavericks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/dal.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New Orleans Pelicans” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/new-orleans-pelicans-logo-updated-2023.png” secondfullname=”Phoenix Suns” secondlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/875040_Suns.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#5″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Minnesota Timberwolves” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/nba-updated-logo-minnesota-timberwolves.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Lakers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nba/100/lal.png”][/teammatchup] |