Thursday’s NBA card features five games and our expert NBA player prop projections reveal over/under picks with massive edges in four of them.
The theme is all overs.
Below, we’ll cover five player prop picks for Thursday — strictly on players with favorable matchups, and ultimately picks on the over. Included is a +333 parlay for Kings vs. Pelicans and a five-leg, +2930 parlay.
Check out picks for Anthony Edwards, James Harden and more for 2/13.
NBA Over/Under Picks: Data-Driven Player Prop Predictions for 2/13
First up, Trey Murphy of the New Orleans Pelicans is set to face the Sacramento Kings, and our model predicts a strong performance from beyond the arc. With a line set at over 3.5 made 3s, our projections have Murphy hitting closer to 5.07 three-pointers. The Kings rank bottom five in basketball in 3s allowed per game this season.
Next, Yves Missi from the Pelicans has a points line set at over 8.5, but our projections shade the big man closer to 11 points. BetMGM has the best price at +105.
Turning our attention to the Los Angeles Clippers, James Harden is set to compete against the Utah Jazz on a back to back. The betting line offering the best odds on over 22.5 points for Harden is at BetMGM, but our model feels this is undervalued, predicting him to score more like 26.5 points.
In the Timberwolves’ matchup versus the Oklahoma City Thunder, Anthony Edwards is expected to shine. The over/under is set at 27.5 points, but our projections anticipate Edwards scoring approximately 31.9 points.
Lastly, Bam Adebayo of the Miami Heat faces the Dallas Mavericks. The line is set for Adebayo to score over 18.5 points at +100 odds, but our PRO projections foresee him scoring closer to 20.9 points. With Adebayo’s ability to dominate in the paint and the Mavericks’ defensive vulnerabilities, this over offers strong value.
+2930 NBA Parlay for Thursday
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