Jonathan Micallef and Kevin Jousset will face off on Saturday night on the early prelims at UFC 312.
Micallef (7-1) will be making his UFC debut after winning back in October on Dana White’s Contender Series. Jousset (10-3) is 2-1 in the UFC and is coming off a loss back in September.
Here’s my Micallef vs. Jousset prediction.
Jonathan Micallef vs. Kevin Jousset Odds, Prediction
| Welterweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Micallef Odds | +190 |
| Jousset Odds | -230 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-166/ +130) |
| UFC 312 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC 312 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
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Micallef vs. Jousset Prediction, Pick
Jousset’s line opened around -200 before moving toward -250; now that it’s returning toward the opener, it’s getting into range for a bet (projected -254), but I’d wait for -230 or better to play the favorite.
Micallef is grappling-reliant, but Jousset — a black belt judoka — should have the defensive skill to keep this fight standing.
Moreover, the City Kickboxing-trained Frenchman showed solid striking in his win over Song Kenan (won 121-55 at distance). If Jousset can prevent takedowns from Micallef or sprawl and brawl while avoiding getting his back taken, he should be the far more consistent minute-winner.
I lean toward the Under in a relatively binary matchup, but I’d want closer to the price for the Under 2.5 (+125 to +130) on the Fight Ends Inside the Distance (projected +110).
Additionally, I view Micallef’s inside-the-distance prop (projected +500, listed +500) as closer to the value side of the winning method market. Still, I’d rather wait for Jousset’s moneyline to come into range.
Zerillo’s Pick: Kevin Jousset (-225, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -230
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