For each week of the NFL season, I break down the NFL anytime touchdown market for every game. I identify the players you should consider betting on and whether the anytime TD odds are worth the investment.
For one final time this season, I’m here to break down the NFL anytime touchdown scorers market for Super Bowl 59, featuring the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
Below is my Super Bowl anytime TD scorer analysis on 11 players who will be suiting up on Super Bowl Sunday at the Caesars Superdome.
Super Bowl Touchdown Scorers
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Saquon Barkley Anytime TD (-190)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/phi.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
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The price tag of -190 is hefty but it’s that price for a reason.
Saquon Barkley has been a TD machine in the postseason and is coming off a three-touchdown performance against the Commanders.
You’d probably be better served betting on multiple TDs or the First TD for Barkley — but this is the Super Bowl, so those odds have already been steamed.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (-115)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/phi.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/betmgm” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
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Jalen Hurts was the favorite to score a TD when the Eagles played the Chiefs in the Super Bowl two years ago and he makes a strong case to be the favorite again over Barkley.
The Eagles offense is quite predictable but also super efficient in short-distance conversions, with Hurts ranking fifth in the NFL in red-zone carries inside the 5-yard line.
When the Eagles get into the red zone, Hurts will see carries and his 2 TD prop (+600) is in play after he also rushed for three TDs against the Commanders.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Patrick Mahomes Anytime TD (+400)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/kc.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/betmgm” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
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Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to Patrick Mahomes.
The annoying part when betting Mahomes TD props is we know how slithery he can be on third down, extending plays with his legs. Why it’s annoying is he’ll go multiple games with very few scrambles and then play a high-profile matchup — like against the Bills in the AFC Championship game — and rush for two scores.
What’s wild is he closed at +550 to score in that game and he is now facing an even tougher run defense in the Eagles yet his odds have dropped to +400. This is not consistent with how sportsbooks tend to price Mahomes — because he’s coming off a two-TD game, you’re buying high that he goes for it again.
He may do that, but just because it’s the Super Bowl doesn’t mean we need to completely ignore price and odds. Unless he’s priced at +550 or better, I’d pass on Mahomes.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Travis Kelce Anytime TD (+145)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/kc.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/draftkings” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
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No one will deny that in the postseason, Travis Kelce raises his game. He scored a TD against the Texans in the Divisional Round and while he was limited against the Bills in the AFC Championship Game, he still has enough playoff pedigree to warrant betting action.
The Eagles were quite good at limiting TEs during the regular season (third in defensive DVOA vs. TEs) but with two TDs allowed to TEs vs. the Rams and Zach Ertz going for 11 catches and 104 yards, it makes sense why bettors would look to Kelce in this spot.
I’d prefer to bet Taylor Swift’s boyfriend for an Anytime TD in the first half (+425) and try to get boosted odds. Of his last 10 TDs scored in the postseason, eight of them were caught in the first half.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Dallas Goedert Anytime TD (+350)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/phi.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/bet365″ trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Arguably my favorite TD bet of Super Bowl LIX, I love Dallas Goedert as an end-zone threat for the Eagles. He’s averaged over 90% of snaps in each playoff game and has fared well against man coverage, which the Chiefs use quite a bit.
It also is encouraging that if the Eagles do get into a passing script and rely less on the run game, they can try to exploit the Chiefs’ awful defense vs. tight ends.
Kansas City ranked bottom five in targets, catches and yards allowed to TEs during the season with five TDs allowed.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Kareem Hunt (+150) & Isiah Pacheco (+360)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/kc.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
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I put Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco together because if you’re betting TDs, you have to make a choice between which of these two will see the goal-line carries.
It looks like the Chiefs made the decision for us. Since Pacheco returned from injury (nine games), Hunt has outpaced Pacheco in carries in seven of nine games and, most importantly, in red-zone carries with 13 opportunities for Hunt and six for Pacheco.
This isn’t me saying to take Hunt for an Anytime TD, but unless he gets hurt, Pacheco isn’t likely to see the volume we need to justify +350.
Much like Kelce, Hunt has done his damage in the first half — he’s scored in four straight games with a first-half TD in three of them. And in the eight games he had a TD, he scored in the first half in six of them. Consider his 1H TD at +450.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Hollywood Brown Anytime TD (+275)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/kc.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/betmgm” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
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Since Hollywood Brown returned from injury, the Chiefs keep trying to make him a fixture in this offense, which has resulted in DeAndre Hopkins seeing less playing time.
In both playoff games, Brown played the second-most snaps of all Chiefs WRs — but outside of a few catches, he’s been non-existent.
I was expecting at least +300 for Brown; I’ll pass unless we see better odds.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”A.J. Brown Anytime TD (+175)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/phi.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/draftkings” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
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Even with Kenny Pickett at QB, A.J. Brown’s never closed over +155 for an Anytime TD.
Regardless of Brown’s sideline antics and being “mad” about the passing offense, he’s still a WR1 being priced like a WR2 and this kind of matchup made for him.
The Chiefs play man coverage at a top-five rate and Brown has crushed man defense in his career with an insane yards per route run (YPRR) rate and an insane target share.
I expect the Eagles to lean on their run game, but if the offense demands more throwing then the passing volume tends to go to Brown.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+165)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/kc.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/draftkings” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
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Based on volume alone, Xavier Worthy should probably be closer to +130.
The rookie has a robust workload and because of his breakaway speed, he’s a threat for a red-zone carry from time to time along with the red-zone targets as a receiver. His 31 red-zone touches for the season (including the postseason) paces all Chiefs receivers, with only Deandre Hopkins cracking double-digits for the season with 10.
Worthy and the injured Rashee Rice may not be similar receivers, but their involvement in the Chiefs offense is of seasoned veterans. For what it’s worth, Rice’s TD odds closed at +140 in last year’s Super Bowl vs. the 49ers.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”DeVonta Smith Anytime TD (+255)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/nfl/100/phi.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/draftkings” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
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A great price for a great receiver who can excel in nearly every matchup. The problem is the Eagles don’t really use DeVonta Smith much in the playoffs.
Smith’s played in eight playoff games in his career and only has one TD and four red-zone targets. This isn’t an indictment on him, but there’s a reason he’s +250: He doesn’t get the target share that A.J. Brown does.
If the Chiefs can limit the Eagles’ run game, Smith may get a boost. You might find better odds for an in-game bet or halftime bet.
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