Tallison Teixeira vs. Justin Tafa Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 312

It speaks to the overall (lack of) quality of the UFC 312 card that the final fight before the championship bouts features a UFC debutant in Tallison Teixeira, taking on Justin Tafa and his 4-4 UFC record.

With that said, Teixeira was impressive on the Contender Series, and Tafa is of local interest to the Australian crowd, so I suppose it makes a certain amount of sense. Let’s see if we can find some betting value on what appears to be a relatively low-level heavyweight bout.

Here’s my Teixeira vs. Tafa prediction.

Tallison Teixeira vs. Justin Tafa Odds

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Tale of the Tape

We didn’t learn a ton about Teixeira during his fight on the Contender Series, a two-minute KO victory against an extremely undersized opponent who had fought just once in the six years prior to being sacrificed to Teixeira.

Due to that, I’m mostly sticking to my original read on the young Brazilian. To summarize, he’s a tall rangy heavyweight with solid power, who uses his length well to claim the center of the cage and avoid taking too much damage.

He’s also a BJJ black belt who began his martial arts journey with the grappling art, with some lower-level championships in BJJ before transitioning to MMA.

We learned from the Contender Series that the promotion is high on the young heavyweight, based on matching him with an opponent who should’ve been a middleweight or light heavyweight. That fight was more of a showcase for Teixeira than a true tryout.

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One could argue this remains the case at UFC 312, despite taking on local favorite Justin Tafa. Tafa is a former kickboxer whose skill on the feet allows him to handle the lowest rung of the heavyweight ladder fairly easily but consistently struggles against competent heavyweights.

The four men Tafa has defeated in the UFC have a combined promotional record of 6-12, while only two of his losses came against opponents with winning UFC records. He’s an extremely one-dimensional power puncher with no wins outside of the first round and low-level grappling by UFC (or even regional promotion) standards.

That makes it tough to see him overcoming the nine-inch reach disadvantage presented by Teixeira, particularly in the full-sized UFC PPV cage. I noted in my original scouting report on Teixeira that he can occasionally get sucked into brawls, but that’s pretty much the only type of fight Tafa is likely to prevail in.

A more measured striking match probably favors the taller and more technical Teixeira, and any grappling certainly does, making the path for Tafa very narrow.

Teixeira vs. Tafa Prediction, Pick

Despite my relative pessimism about Tafa above, I’m just slightly worried about UFC debut jitters — as well as a hostile crowd, travel and time zone difficulties, etc. — to commit to laying the slight juice on Teixeira.

Instead, I will split my exposure on what I view as the two likeliest outcomes in this one. That would be a first-round knockout from Tafa or a win by any means for Teixeira.

Tafa by first-round knockout is +380 at FanDuel, so I’m putting a quarter unit on that. Then, I’m adding .75 units on Teixeira’s moneyline, with the best available odds of -135 at Caesars and ESPNBet.

That way, we come out with a slight profit if Tafa finishes it early or if Teixeira wins while still risking just a unit overall. If I had to pick just one, it would be the Teixeira moneyline, but I don’t feel strongly enough about this fight to take a firm stance.

Billy’s Pick: Justin Tafa by Round 1 KO/TKO +380 (FanDuel) 0.25u | Tallison Teixeira -135 (Caesars/ESPNBet) 0.75u 

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