For Sunday’s best touchdown picks, I’m personally heading straight to PRO data to get my fill.
Some shops are running parlay or SGP promos for the NFL Conference Championship games. Well, well, well, how perfect: PRO touchdown projections run by our NFL experts reveal three strong anytime TD picks for Bills vs. Chiefs when Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes duel it out at Arrowhead.
PRO touchdown models take into account key insights like:
- Odds comparisons
- Route-running stats and projections
- Edge percentage to determine best picks
Three of the sharpest PRO predictions for a touchdown in Bills vs. Chiefs are all priced +500 or better.
For the parlay crowd, we’re sitting on a three-leg SGP which pays out +22449.
Bills vs Chiefs Touchdown Predictions, SGP, Projections for 1/26
Projections were updated Friday morning. Who’s ready to rock? Let’s get it started.
Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce scored yet another playoff touchdown last weekend in Kansas City’s opener vs. the Texans. In other news, the sky is blue, and water is wet.
The smart move in the AFC Championship Game for touchdown picks, meanwhile, is pivoting off Kelce and picking his backup, Noah Gray, to score.
Gray’s +550 at FanDuel to get in the endzone at any point vs. the Bills. PRO Projections, powered by Sean Koerner, forecast Gray for 0.21 touchdowns per game, or a fair price more like +375.
It’s a solid edge above the recommended threshold of 3.5%.
PRO TD Projections Pick: Noah Gray TD
Moving onto the Bills, PRO Projections aren’t giving up on Amari Cooper, who was a hot edge last weekend.
The Bills wide receiver is priced +550 at FanDuel, but our projection (0.19 TDs) equates to a fair price of about +425. DraftKings offers the best solo price on Cooper (6/1).
PRO TD Projections Pick: Amari Cooper TD
The second of two Bills players and final pick for a TD in Bills vs. Chiefs is Buffalo backup running back Ty Johnson.
Johnson gets solid run as the third down back in Buffalo’s offense and is beloved by Allen, who found Johnson for a touchdown strike just two weeks ago.
FanDuel’s odds of +850 imply about a 10.5% chance of scoring. Projections remain more optimistic on Johnson than the market, setting a projection of 0.14 touchdowns.
PRO TD Projections Pick: Ty Johnson TD
Parlay Price: +22449
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