nfl predictions

NFL Conference Championship Picks: Luck Rankings Model Likes Both Totals

Last weekend, the Luck Rankings had an under in play on the Bills vs. Ravens total, which ended up losing by our consensus measure.

However, the total did close at 52 in some places, so if you waited until kickoff and took that under — as I did — you at least pushed.

Still, I’m counting it as a loss against the consensus closing line, which moves our Playoff Luck Unders to 24-9 (72.7%) since 2018. During that stretch, Luck Overs were 11-6 (64.7%).

Both Conference Championship games meet our Luck Rankings playoff totals thresholds. Let’s dive right into it.

Conference Championship Luck Rankings Games

For this year’s Conference Championship Round, there are two Luck Totals beyond the plus-or-minus 1.25-point threshold.

Commanders vs. Eagles

Sunday, Jan. 26
3 p.m. ET
FOX


Luck Total: -1.8

With a Luck Total of -1.8, this game squeaks by our playoff threshold to satisfy the Luck Under requirement.

This is the third time these two NFC East foes will face off this year, which tends to lead to lower-scoring games. In addition, there’s some potential wind in the forecast. Throw in the teams’ higher-scoring luck this year — which is expected to regress over time — and we have three signals pointing toward the under.

This doesn’t mention that Jalen Hurts is dealing with a knee injury — reported as an MCL strain — and may be less than 100% heading into the game. Any limitations to his mobility and accuracy may also hurt the game’s chances of surpassing the closing total.

I say closing total because I have yet to bet on this game.

Per our Pro Report, 87% of the bets and 84% of the money are coming in on the over, so this total is likely to increase, especially if news on Hurts’ knee injury comes out more positive as the game gets closer.

Verdict: Wait


Bills vs. Chiefs

Sunday, Jan. 26
6:30 p.m. ET
CBS

Luck Total: -1.7

Like the NFC game, the AFC Championship game is also a Luck Under, with the Luck Total at -1.7.

This total has decreased from 48.5 on Monday to the current consensus of 47.5. That still keeps us over the key number of 47, but 48 is the second-most key number between 44 and 51, so it’d be nice to get that number before taking the under.

There’s also reason to be concerned about both defenses, as both Kansas City and Buffalo rank poorly in recency-weighted metrics such as Defensive DVOA and EPA allowed.

Additionally, both quarterbacks have unfavorable coverage matchups.

The Chiefs use plenty of man coverage but often mix in Cover-2 and Cover-4 looks. Allen hasn’t been superhuman against either coverage.

Similarly, Buffalo runs plenty of two-high shell coverages but with a primarily zone-heavy approach, running plenty of Cover-2, Cover-4 and Cover-6 looks. The Bills like to keep the ball in front of them and avoid explosive plays. Mahomes may pick the defense apart underneath, but it’ll likely be in a dink-and-dunk matter, resulting in lengthy, clock-killing drives.

I lean under here, but like the NFC Championship game, we’re in a holding pattern with 80% of the bets and 83% of the money on the over.

Verdict: Wait

_InlineAdBlockRestart